I'm standing by my pick of the Angels

Back in March, I picked the California Angels (yes, I still call them that) to win not only the American League West but also make it all the way to the World Series.

I thought they had the best pitching to win the West. I thought the weight of Toronto being taken off Vernon Wells' shoulders would have led to a resurgence in his bat. And with Kendry Morales due back at mid season, they would get a nice jolt.

And I also figured in a short playoff series, the combination of Jered Weaver, Dan Haren and Ervin Santana would have them win both the Division Series and the ALCS.

Well that pick looks... well... not so good now.
But unlike my out of the blue picking of Oakland in 2009, I am standing by my pick.

Yes their offense is awful. They keep grounding into double plays and they've been shutout as many time this year as they had all last year.

Morales isn't coming back, Wells has been a total bust and here we are in Mid June with the Angels 5 games under .500.

But here's the thing. There is talent in the lineup. Mark Trumbo has shown some pop, Howie Kendrick is a decent hitter and Torii Hunter, Bobby Abreu and Maicer Izturis all have ability. They are in a funk.

Hitting is easier to fix than pitching, and this Angels team CAN pitch. Weaver and Haren are still pitching well, even if their win loss record doesn't reflect it. Young Jordan Walden has stepped into the closer role.

The Angels need to make a move and they need to make it sooner rather than later.

If they could bring in a player to give the team an offensive spark, the effect could be felt up and down the line up.

Imagine a player like Carlos Beltran plugged into the lineup. Remove him from the purgatory of Flushing and have him play in an outfield with Torii Hunter and Peter Bourjos (would there be a better defensive outfield in the game?)

And having him go on one last contract run could mean the likes of Abreu and Hunter and Trumbo could see more fastballs.

And also remember the Angels are only 5 games back of the Rangers with about 2/3 of the season to play. AND the Rangers always have a tough time of it in August.

(Even last year, the Rangers had a losing August. They just had such a big lead that none of the other AL West teams could take advantage of it.)

Give this lineup a new spark and the Angels could start scoring more runs and getting on a roll. Just take a look at the Red Sox to see how quickly things can turn around for a talented club.

But Arte Moreno and the management have to make a deal involving some prospects too.

Last year they made the right move, realizing that they got the best of what they could out of Joe Saunders and packaged him off for Dan Haren.

In the past the Angels have held on to players long before they have any worth in the majors or as trade bait.

(Dallas McPherson? Robb Quinlan? Brandon Wood?)

Bring Beltran to Anaheim and see the line up click.
Then see that 5 game deficit crumble.
Then see one of my picks look pretty good.

Yup. I'm standing by my pick.

The reawakening of Vernon Wells - My latest for The Hardball Times

In my latest for The Hardball Times, I speculate about Vernon Wells and the potentially joyful season he might be having for the Angels. My reasons are not based on stats but rather emotions, which means the commenters will probably hate my guts.

Ahh well.

You can read the whole article here.

An untradeable player has been traded

In each of the last two seasons I have included Vernon Wells in one of my How can they trade that untradeable contract? posts.

One for the blog after the 2009 season... one for The Hardball Times after the 2010 season.

Well, it took Adrian Beltre, Carl Crawford and just about every other player in creation to turn down the Angels to do it... but the Blue Jays found a suitor.

Vernon is heading to Los Angeles.
And then drive about an hour south and wind up in Anaheim. But let's for the sake of argument call it Los Angeles.

I personally think it is a terrific move for the Angels.
Wells is a stand up guy with talent. And he should fit in well with the organization and the lineup.

Please spare us all the indignity of breaking down his play and his WAR, VORP and OPS+. That's not what this move is about.

As I wrote before, this is about a change going to do him good.
He signed that gigantic contract to stay in Toronto. And it became his legacy and identity.

He even had to wear the hairshirt and indignity of having to admit he wasn't worth the contract.

It was time for a change of scenery. As much as he clearly loved Toronto, and as much as I thought him having a Todd Helton moment would have been super cool, he had to go.

I had him for two years in a row going to the Cubs. I thought the natural surface and a fresh start with a fan base would be ideal. But now he is off to a model organization with a good pitching staff, Kendry Morales should be back and no doubt Torii Hunter will welcome him with open arms.

He'll be playing for a potential Hall of Fame manager and will no doubt be in a pennant race.

And he won't have the constant reminder that his contract his too big.

Can you say "relaxed"? Can you "rejuvenated"? Can you say "big season for a guy who actually made the All Star team in 2010"?

Not bad for an untradeable player.

Give the Rockies credit... they give their fans players to cling to

You are going to hear a lot of mixed opinions about Troy Tulowitzki's long term contract extension with the Rockies.

Jeff Passan has already chimed in on Yahoo. The panel on MLB Network is split on it. (John Hart pointed out what a no brainer Grady Sizemore's super stardom looked like.) And more will come down the pike.

And yes people are pointing to the Rockies rotten contracts for Mike Hampton and Denny Neagle, but those are disingenuous comparisons. They overpaid for them to lure some pitching into Denver and as it turned out, they were both bad fits. (Although Hampton liked the schools and Neagle liked the women in his car.)

You will hear Todd Helton's name being thrown around as a lousy contract as well. And I suppose technically it wasn't a great one. It was an albatross for a bunch of years and by 2006, they would have dealt Helton for flat Diet Sprite.

But a very cool thing happened the next year.
The Rockies went on their amazing run and stunned everyone on the planet Earth by sweeping Arizona and storming into the World Series.

And the last out was recorded by Helton.

The Rockies had a bunch of players most fans had never heard of. But they had Helton, who might not have been the superstar he was when he signed his bear of a contract. But he was the steady player whom any baseball fan knew and could relate to Colorado.

And that is something that all the stat heads in the world will NEVER understand. Sometimes for a fan base, it is GOOD to have a steady reliable player that the fan base can point to and say "That's my guy!"

Helton was that guy on the 2007 Rockies. Who knows? If the Blue Jays make the playoffs, Vernon Wells and HIS brontosaurus of a contract might have a similar reaction to Helton in the '07 ALCS.

It is why I totally understood the Ryan Howard contract. Lots of people killed it, but I got it. Sometimes you need to put OPS+, VORP, WAR and everything else and put it on the shelf.

Howard the Phillies fan's guy. He delivered for them with those towering homers in the 2008 World Series and as the 2009 NLCS MVP. He was a World Champion and an MVP for the Phillies... and you don't have to worry about him going to New York or Chicago or Boston. The long term contract gave the fans license to get attached to him as a Phillie.

And besides, how do you know if an Adrian Gonzalez or whomever else would be able to produce in Philadelphia or be as loved by the fans.

Sometimes to build up a fan base, regular fans need to have fan favorites to root for. Not everyone is watching the game with a calculator in hand. Some people (and brace yourself here) root for the PLAYERS. Some people like having a player to cheer for through thick and thin, and not drop them from their Fantasy Team because their Base Out Win percentage dropped.

Yes it involves emotion, but not all baseball fans are Vulcans!
Some fans have been stung by departing players and want to know if this is a long term relationship or just a fling.

I wonder if the Marlins would have a bigger fan base if some of their World Champions were able to stick around. I wonder if Padres fans would have shown up at the park this year if they felt like the stars they were cheering for would actually come back in 2011.

So guess what Rockies fans... you can buy a Tulowitzki jersey and know it will be good for a while. In the age of free agency, spending 10 seasons in a smaller market is really all you can ask for.

Todd Helton has given Colorado fans 13+ seasons.
Tulowitzki could spend 14+ seasons in Denver if the contract runs through all of its options.

Either way there will be many Rockie fans who could point to Todd and Troy and say "They were MY GUYS."

Taking stock of the first 1/3 of the season

Memorial Day and the beginning of June take place roughly at the 1/3 mark of the baseball season.

There's still a lot of baseball to be played, but enough games are in the bank that we can start to analyze which teams look like contenders and which players are having really special years.

And we here at Sully Baseball are going to take a look at who the playoff teams are and who are the award winners with 2/3 of the season left to go.

There are some surprise playoff teams and at this writing some startling omissions. And the NL Rookie of the Year vote might change completely if Buster Posey and Stephen Strasburg have anything to say about it.

Let's see where we are.

If the playoffs started today…

AL East Champion Tampa Bay Rays
Would have home field advantage over
AL West Champion Oakland A’s

AL Central Champion Minnesota Twins
Would have home field advantage over
AL Wild Card New York Yankees

Toronto Blue Jays, Boston Red Sox and Texas Rangers would all be 3 games or fewer out of a playoff spot

NL West Champion San Diego Padres
Would have home field advantage over
NL Wild Card Cincinnati Reds

NL Central Champion St. Louis Cardinals
Would have home field advantage over
NL East Champion Atlanta Braves

Cardinals would be the Division Champ on the basis of their head to head record with the Reds.

Philadelphia Phillies, Los Angeles Dodgers, San Francisco Giants and Colorado Rockies would all be 3 games or fewer out of a playoff spot.

AL MVP:
MIGUEL CABRERA, Tigers
Leads the league with 48 RBI. Also leads the league in slugging. Second in homers and OPS. Third in batting average and on base percentage.

In the running:
JUSTIN MORNEAU, Twins. KEVIN YOUKILIS, Red Sox. ROBINSON CANO, Yankees. EVAN LONGORIA, Rays. VLADIMIR GUERRERO, Rangers.

NL MVP:
ALBERT PUJOLS, Cardinals
Have you noticed than even with his “slump” he’s 1st in homers, 3rd in OPS, 3rd in on base percentage, 5th in RBI, and 6th in hits? Plus he’s batting .310 in his “disappointing first 2 months.” He’s the MVP until someone proves otherwise.

In the running:
ANDRE ETHIER, Dodgers. JASON HEYWARD, Braves. JOEY VOTTO, Reds.

AL CY YOUNG:
JON LESTER, Red Sox
Lowest batting average against. Second in strikeouts. Sub 3.00 ERA after terrible start. Tied for third in wins, 1 behind the co-leaders.

In the running:
DAVID PRICE, Rays. JEFF NIEMANN, Rays. PHIL HUGHES, Yankees.

NL CY YOUNG:
UBALDO JIMENEZ, Rockies
In a season full of dominating ace performances, his 10-1 record with a 0.78 ERA and a 0.90 WHIP (and a no hitter thrown in for good measure) make Jimenez the winner at the 1/3 mark.

In the running:
ROY HALLADAY, Phillies. TIM LINCECUM, Giants. ADAM WAINWRIGHT, Cardinals.

AL ROOKIE OF THE YEAR:
MITCH TALBOT, Indians.
6-3 record for the lowly Tribe. 3.73 ERA and a complete game victory in his second start this season.

In the running:
WADE DAVIS, Rays. AUSTIN JACKSON, Tigers. BRENNAN BOESCH, Tigers.

NL ROOKIE OF THE YEAR:
JASON HEYWARD, Braves.
He’s all that he has been hyped up to be. Hits for power, for solid average and has a flair for the dramatic.

In the running:
MIKE LEAKE, Reds. IKE DAVIS, Mets. DAVID FREESE, Cardinals. JAIME GARCIA, Cardinals.

AL MANAGER OF THE YEAR:
JOE MADDON, Rays.
Guiding the young and talented Rays back to the top of the most brutal division in baseball and has the best record in the game.

In the running:
BOB GEREN, Athletics. RON WASHINGTON, Rangers. RON GARDENHIRE, Twins. CITO GASTON, Blue Jays. JOE GIRARDI, Yankees.

NL MANAGER OF THE YEAR:
DUSTY BAKER, Reds.
Has the Reds tied for first place going into June and doing so with solid pitching and clutch hitting. Don’t wear out those young arms!!!

In the running:
BUD BLACK, Padres. BOBBY COX, Braves. JOE TORRE, Dodgers. BRUCE BOCHY, Giants.

AL COMEBACK PLAYER OF THE YEAR:
VERNON WELLS, Blue Jays
Unwanted and untradeable a year ago, now has a .301 average, a .956 OPS, leads the league in doubles and has 13 homers, 2 shy of his total last year over 158 games!

In the running:
VLADIMIR GUERRERO, Rangers. ALEX RIOS, White Sox. TY WIGGINGTON, Orioles. ERVIN SANTANA, Angels.

NL COMEBACK PLAYER OF THE YEAR:
CARLOS SILVA, Cubs
Has given the Cubs a sparkling 7-0 record with a respectable 3.12 ERA… and the Cubs would have taken a can of Sprite for Milton Bradley!

In the running:
BARRY ZITO, Giants. TIM HUDSON, Braves. LIVAN HERNANDEZ, Nationals.

BIGGEST BUST IN THE AL:
JOSH BECKETT, Red Sox
Signs a 5 year contract extension and wins a single game and has an ERA of 7.29 before he lands on the DL.

In the running:
CHONE FIGGINS, Mariners. AARON HILL, Blue Jays. GRADY SIZEMORE, Indians. MILTON BRADLEY, Mariners

BIGGEST BUST IN THE NL:
CARLOS LEE, Astros
Low average. Bad on base percentage. Lackluster power. All for $19 million!

In the running:
MARK DeROSA, Giants. ARAMIS RAMIREZ, Cubs. AKI IWAMURA, Pirates. EDWIN JACKSON, Diamondbacks.


So in less than an hour it will be June in California (as it is already June on the East Coast.)

We'll take stock again at the All Star Break (the unofficial half way mark) and at Labor Day (the home stretch.)

It will be interesting to see if the Phillies, Red Sox, Dodgers and Angels are still on the outside looking in!

This is a trade the Cubs WISHED they made

Last winter I proposed that three teams work together and swap albatross contracts. It was along the lines of what the Mariners and Cubs did in swapping Milton Bradley for Carlos Silva.

The mega mistake deal I proposed included yet another behemoth contract that the Cubs shelled out. (Doesn’t that tell you something? That maybe front office mistakes have more to do with the Cubs not winning than a Billy Goat or poor Steve Bartman!)

I suggested that the Cubs take their disgruntled and underachieving one time superstar Alfonso Soriano and ship him off in a three team trade. The Giants would unload their disappointing erstwhile ace Barry Zito and the Blue Jays would send one time face of the franchise Vernon Wells out of town.

The thought process was maybe they all need a change of scenery. Maybe a change could jolt their careers. Maybe going to a ballpark where the fans shake their head at the very mention of your name could be a bit much.

In my deal the Cubs would send Soriano to the Giants.
The Giants would send Zito to Toronto.
The Blue Jays would then send Wells to Wrigley.

I bet the Cubs wished they pulled off that deal.

Wells is off to a fast start in Toronto with 6 homers, an average of .340 and an OPS of 1.224.

Zito is mowing down batters left and right with a 2-0 record, an ERA of 1.86 and a .176 batting average against, giving the Giants a chance to think maybe the signing wasn’t a complete mistake.

And Soriano… ooof.
There’s talk of benching him.
His contract is no considered to be the worst in baseball.
He is vilified in Wrigley.

And there’s not a lot of places where they can ship him off.

Not to get all Presidential on you Cubs fans… but when you see Soriano next, just think to yourself “FOUR MORE YEARS! FOUR MORE YEARS!”

If they ever find a place to ship Soriano the Cubs won’t be done dealing yet.

Kosuke Fukudome is still cashing a paycheck

Joe Mauer better not be Vernon Wells

An unlikely team opened up their wallets and signed their All Star potential Free Agent to a long term deal.

And the deal is called great for baseball.
No doubt on the open market this All Star would sniff New York or Boston's offers.

And a home grown star, someone who is one of the good guys in the sport, would have been lost.

Instead competitive balance was restored... and a fan base who saw glory under the dome the 1980s and 1990s including a pair of World Series titles FINALLY got a sense of continuity with their favorite star.

Who am I talking about?
Joe Mauer?
Vernon Wells?

Wells signed the mongo 7 year $126 million contract after the 2006 season. The Blue Jays, who finished second that season, looked like they were getting ready to make a move on the AL East.

They did alright... they moved down.
And Vernon Wells has slumped and is a shell of his former self.

And you have to wonder if they didn't have such a backloaded albatross of a contract with Wells if the Blue Jays would have been able to keep Roy Halladay.

The only way to move Wells would be to take on another albatross, as I suggested earlier this year.

Remember how A-Rod's contract prevented the Rangers from getting better?
Remember how Ken Griffey Jr's contracted prevented the Reds from getting better?

What I am saying is... I hope Joe Mauer stays healthy and doesn't slump.

Catchers wear down faster than center fielders

I'd hate for this contract to be a burden 5, 6, 7 or 8 years from now

Sully Baseball Presents ANOTHER BLOCK BUSTER TRADE THAT SHOULD HAPPEN BUT PROBABLY WON'T

Bernie Taupin and Elton John said it best in “Honky Cat”… a change is going to do me good.



Sometimes a change can do a ballplayer some good. Sometimes a player is simply stuck in a bad place and changing to another team could awaken the star player within



Three World Series MVPs were players that were considered damaged good before they changed addresses and were revived. (Dave Stewart, Scott Brosius and Mike Lowell.)



Other players just have excessive expectations and can’t meet their potential until they switch uniforms and help a team to the World Series title. (Jose Contreras and Jeff Weaver come to mind.)



Which brings me to insane multiteam trade #2 of the Winter Meetings that should take place.



Earlier today I proposed a 9 team deal that basically shuffles a bunch of bad contracts around.



Well now I am suggesting that three of the whopper, gigantic, unmovable, GMs have been fired for less contracts should be swapped for each other.

The Giants deal Barry Zito
and his $83 million contract over 4 seasons to the Blue Jays

The Blue Jays deal Vernon Wells
and his $98.5 million contract over 4 seasons to the Cubs

The Cubs deal Alfonso Soriano
and his $95 million contract over 5 seasons to the Giants

The Giants bring in Soriano, a player who at one point in his career looked like an MVP candidate… but is coming off of injuries, terrible defense, and not exactly endearing himself to the Chicago faithful.Soriano gets a fresh start and could move to first base and protect Pablo Sandoval. And they wouldn’t have to give up any young pitching talent.



The Blue Jays would get Zito, a starting pitcher to fill the inevitable void left by the Roy Halladay deal. Plus Zito had much more success in the AL than the NL… go figure. And as big as Zito’s contract is, it is would actually SAVE the Blue Jays nearly $5 million a season compared to Wells.



The Cubs get Wells, a player who before his giant contract was a Gold Glover with power and was considered to be one of the good guys in the game. Maybe he would relax in Wrigley and regain his power stroke and defense. And if it doesn’t comeback, his contract is a year shorter than Soriano’s.



So once again, your pal Sully has the right idea… you can’t get out from a crappy contract. But maybe a DIFFERENT crappy contract can make the difference?



How can it be worse than seeing these guys sit miserably in their current dugouts for the next 4 or 5 years?



Sing it, Elton!!!