The Giants World Series defense could end this weekend

On July 28, the Giants had a 4 game lead and added Carlos Beltran to the lineup.

If you told me 33 games later that the NL West could be wrapped up, I'd say "Well, the Diamondbacks had a nice year, but it is the Giants division."



Instead we have the Giants, the defending World Champs, the great new team to market and promote, are fighting for their very lives.



The best way to illustrate how the Diamondbacks and the Giants have gone in different directions in the past 33 games is to look at their records since July 28th.



The Diamondbacks are 22-11.

The Giants are 11-22.



The Giants are 6 games out.

The Diamondbacks magic number is 20.



The Giants MUST win 2 of 3.

They SHOULD win all 3.



A sweep will mean it is a 3 game hole.

2 of 3 for the Giants would mean a 5 game hole.



LOSING 2 of 3 would mean the Giants would be behind a week in the standings with only 3 weeks left to play.



If the Giants get swept... they will be down 9 games in the standings with 22 games to play.

The Diamondbacks Magic Number would be 14.



Come on Giants! Show a little something. I do NOT want to see a Phillies-Diamondbacks series.

The Giants and Rockies took my advice

I like to think that most GMs like to read Sully Baseball on a daily basis and they take my suggestions to heart. And it seemed that the Giants and the Rockies may have done just that.

Last May I gave the Giants some advice in what looked like a potential playoff run.

Brian Sabean listened to some of my advice (recalling Madison Bumgarner and Buster Posey sooner than later and giving Pat Burrell a shot) and ignored others (signing Jermaine Dye and seeing if Eric Hacker could handle long relief).

One thing I suggested was dealing Zack Wheeler for a bat. I figured that while you almost never deal young pitching, this was the exception if it would bring a difference making bat. Now as it turned out, they didn't need the difference making bat last year. There is no way that even bringing Albert Pujols onto the 2010 Giants would have improved anything.

Put away the calculators and getting ready to show me Pujols' OPS+ and Base/Hit to Contact Adjusted ratio. (I just made that up, but I am sure it is being used by SOME stat head.)

If you put Albert Pujols and Josh Hamilton on the 2010 Giants, the end result would not have improved... because the end result was a World Series Championship.

Well I for one gave a big grin when I saw Wheeler was dealt for Carlos Beltran, a deal that screamed "No Brainer" for me.
Sure Wheeler has a chance to be a big time pitcher for the Mets. Beltran has a chance to help cement the Giants as a national brand.

People are noticing the Giants, and as I suggested in the video we made last January, they are slowly becoming an alternative bandwagon to the ultra serious and competitive Red Sox and Yankees turf wars.

Another October run with this cast of characters could solidify them as a big time franchise and destination place for free agents. Ask yourself, 4 or 5 years ago was Philadelphia considered to be a desirable landing spot for star players?

If the Phillies could make that kind of turn around based on a World Series title, some more post season appearances and a dash of cool, why not the more extroverted Giants?

A nice pitching prospect is a small price to pay for helping build a national brand, especially with Lincecum, Cain, Bumgarner, Volgelsong and Sanchez all still in the rotation.

I know the Giants are only 2 games up on Arizona. No part of me is worried. They are heading back to the playoffs and have as good a chance of anyone to get to the World Series.

Meanwhile the Rockies did EXACTLY what I told them to do. A few weeks ago I begged them to deal Ubaldo Jimenez while people still thought he was an ace pitcher.

I don't think he is. I think he is a good pitcher who had a great half of a season. He's not an ace. He's an ace flavored product.

And if the Rockies dealt him while he still looked and felt like an ace, they would get more in a haul for him then if they waited for Ubaldo to reveal that he isn't a true #1.

While I admire the Indians for going for it and picking up a guy who clearly isn't a rental, it's unlikely that Cleveland would have parted with four players including highly touted prospects Drew Pomeranz and Alex White, if Jimenez started piling up .500 seasons with mediocre ERAs in Denver.

Yeah Jimenez was a popular member of the Rockies. So was Matt Holliday. The Rockies dealt HIM when he still had a "potential MVP" aura about him and wound up getting Carlos Gonzalez and Huston Street in the deal.

I think before long, the dealing of Matt Holliday and Ubaldo Jimenez, as unthinkable as it may have been when they were contending for big awards, might be the best thing that ever happened to the Rockies franchise and could lead directly to another pennant very soon.

Just glad they took my advice.

Who needs Beltran?

Seriously, all the Giants need to do is get 2 runs a game and they can beat the likes of Cole Hamels and the Phillies.

Isn't that the game plan that won them a World Series last year?

I'm standing by my pick of the Angels

Back in March, I picked the California Angels (yes, I still call them that) to win not only the American League West but also make it all the way to the World Series.

I thought they had the best pitching to win the West. I thought the weight of Toronto being taken off Vernon Wells' shoulders would have led to a resurgence in his bat. And with Kendry Morales due back at mid season, they would get a nice jolt.

And I also figured in a short playoff series, the combination of Jered Weaver, Dan Haren and Ervin Santana would have them win both the Division Series and the ALCS.

Well that pick looks... well... not so good now.
But unlike my out of the blue picking of Oakland in 2009, I am standing by my pick.

Yes their offense is awful. They keep grounding into double plays and they've been shutout as many time this year as they had all last year.

Morales isn't coming back, Wells has been a total bust and here we are in Mid June with the Angels 5 games under .500.

But here's the thing. There is talent in the lineup. Mark Trumbo has shown some pop, Howie Kendrick is a decent hitter and Torii Hunter, Bobby Abreu and Maicer Izturis all have ability. They are in a funk.

Hitting is easier to fix than pitching, and this Angels team CAN pitch. Weaver and Haren are still pitching well, even if their win loss record doesn't reflect it. Young Jordan Walden has stepped into the closer role.

The Angels need to make a move and they need to make it sooner rather than later.

If they could bring in a player to give the team an offensive spark, the effect could be felt up and down the line up.

Imagine a player like Carlos Beltran plugged into the lineup. Remove him from the purgatory of Flushing and have him play in an outfield with Torii Hunter and Peter Bourjos (would there be a better defensive outfield in the game?)

And having him go on one last contract run could mean the likes of Abreu and Hunter and Trumbo could see more fastballs.

And also remember the Angels are only 5 games back of the Rangers with about 2/3 of the season to play. AND the Rangers always have a tough time of it in August.

(Even last year, the Rangers had a losing August. They just had such a big lead that none of the other AL West teams could take advantage of it.)

Give this lineup a new spark and the Angels could start scoring more runs and getting on a roll. Just take a look at the Red Sox to see how quickly things can turn around for a talented club.

But Arte Moreno and the management have to make a deal involving some prospects too.

Last year they made the right move, realizing that they got the best of what they could out of Joe Saunders and packaged him off for Dan Haren.

In the past the Angels have held on to players long before they have any worth in the majors or as trade bait.

(Dallas McPherson? Robb Quinlan? Brandon Wood?)

Bring Beltran to Anaheim and see the line up click.
Then see that 5 game deficit crumble.
Then see one of my picks look pretty good.

Yup. I'm standing by my pick.

The Mets and Cubs should trade their trash

I am currently writing a new post for The Hardball Times where I try to put together a mega trade involving lousy contracts.



I wrote two similar pieces last off season... one where I had a three way trade involving Vernon Wells, Alfonso Soriano and Barry Zito.



The other one was a 9 team 11 player deal that was totally insane... although one part of it DID come true: Carlos Silva was in fact traded for Milton Bradley.



So I was doing the same thing this year... put together a mega trade of insanely bad long term contracts (Zito, Wells and Soriano are still subjects although Wells did have a good year for Toronto.)



And I was going to suggest which expensive short team deals should be swapped. (As I said before, who knows? A change of scenery might be what some of these guys need.)



As I was compiling a list of rotten 2011 contracts, I noticed something.

A lot of them were Met players.

And a lot of them were on the Cubs.



It just goes to show that a big payroll does not always mean a winning product.

The Cubs had the highest payroll in the National League.

The Mets had the third highest payroll in the National League.



Both had losing seasons and were not a factor in any playoff chase.



But guess what, Cubs and Mets fans! A lot of the same players who put on an uninspired yet expensive show for you ARE COMING BACK!



I say let's shake a few things up.



Take the bad contracts for the Mets, swap them for the bad contracts from the Cubs.

The worst thing that will happen is they will both have bad teams with big payrolls.



But guess what? That will happen no matter what!



The best thing that could happen is one of the players blossoms in a new environment. Maybe a new coach will give him some good advice. Maybe a player will relax wearing a new uniform without people reminding him how awful his contract is.



Maybe a new player will just fit in well with a different group of guys.



Maybe someone will say "Hey, my contract is running out. I should pull an Adrian Beltre and put together a great season."



So let's make the big trade.

The Cubs acquire





Carlos Beltran





Jason Bay





Francisco Rodriguez





Luis Castillo



plus Cash

The Mets acquire





Carlos Zambrano







Aramis Ramirez





Kosuke Fukudome





Carlos Silva





John Grabow

So let's take a look at what each team gets...



THE CUBS

If they catch lightning in a bottle, they can get Carlos Beltran playing for one more contract and have the yoke of New York off of his shoulders.



They can get Jason Bay happy to be swinging in a hitters ballpark again.



It is safe to say that Francisco Rodriguez isn't fitting in with New York. But what if all he needs is a change of scenery?



And Luis Castillo... wouldn't it be nice to see the guy who hit "The Bartman Ball" in Wrigleyville?



THE METS

Carlos Zambrano's time in Chicago might be winding down. Yeah he looked like a good soldier coming back, but anytime a team's ace needs time away for some sort of anger management, it might be time to change addresses. If he gets his act together he can be a wonderful 1-2 punch with Santana. Or he could beat up new manager Terry Collins. Either way, it would be fun to watch.



Aramis Ramirez has been super injury prone since signing his behemoth of a contract so maybe a change of position would be ideal for him. First base? Left field? Or probably sitting his butt on the bench while on the disabled list.



Kosuke Fukudome hasn't been the Ichiro type of superstar that the Cubs were hoping for. But he has some pop in his bat and maybe decreased expectations could help. Thanks to Kaz Matsui, there is no way he will ever be the biggest Japanese flop in Mets history. And if he plays badly for the Mets, it's not like he has a last name that New York fans could turn into an obscene chant.



With Carlos Silva the Mets get a guy who got off to a great start last year before injuries caught up with him. Perhaps he can stay healthy long enough to contribute. After Santana, Pelfrey and Zambrano, he'd be a nice #4 starter.



And John Grabow had a truly rotten year for the Cubs... but he is left handed and can pitch, ergo he is a millionaire several times over.







After the dust settles on this trade, the Cubs would have sent $82.16 million in payroll to the Mets.



The Mets would have sent $87 million in payroll to the Cubs (so the cash makes up the difference.)



And after 2011, all of the players would be off the Mets roster save for Carlos Zambrano who would have one more season at $18 million... so they would have almost $65 million of salaries coming off the books for 2012.



The Cubs? They would be on the hook for Jason Bay, but he could be an ideal fit in that hitters ballpark the way he was in Boston. Meanwhile they'd have $55 million to spend after the 2011 season.



But then again, neither one of these teams seem very good at spending money wisely. Otherwise they wouldn't have to deal all of these big contracts.



Now for those of you who are wondering why I didn't include Alfonso Soriano nor Oliver Perez in these deals... well just wait. I am working out two more blockbuster trades that should happen but won't.



Players WILL be on the move!



At least in my strange parallel universe.

Filling out my All Star Ballot

It's that time of year again... time to fill out our All Star Ballots and give the power to the people.

And with that power comes the insane picks that made Jason Giambi an All Star starter despite being benched on his own team in 2004... or mediocre Red Sox second baseman Mark Loretta being voted in as a starter in 2006.

It is a wonderful theory to have fans vote in players, but often times they will either simply punch in players that play for THEIR team, players they recognize or people who have had good first halves of the season.

So the staff here at Sully Baseball decided to fill out three All Star Ballots with three different sets of Ballots. And each one will have a different criteria for why each player is getting at least one vote.

I filled them out at Dodger Stadium this weekend with a little help from my friend, the Emmy winning writer and comedian Dan Cronin.

BALLOT ONE: The Players I WANT To See Play Ballot

I believe the All Star Game should be filled with players who are having a good year and will be exciting to see. By that I mean a STAR. If the National League is throwing Tim Lincecum on the mound, I want him facing down a star American League player... not someone that an egg head with a calculator tells me has a higher VORP than the league average.

Yeah I know Derek Jeter isn't having his best season... I want to see him face Halladay, Jimenez and Santana.

Is that subjective? Sure... but it's my ballot. You don't like it, get your own.

NATIONAL LEAGUE:

Catcher - ROD BARAJAS, Mets
His 10 homers leads all big league catchers.

First Base - ALBERT PUJOLS, Cardinals
He's had a bad May, but when the season is over, he'll be in the MVP discussion.

Second Base - CHASE UTLEY, Phillies
10 homers, .307 average and a 1.016 OPS gets the nod over Dan Uggla.

Shortstop - HANLEY RAMIREZ, Marlins
Let's see some hustle out there, Hanley!

Third Base - RYAN ZIMMERMAN, Nationals
A lot of good third basemen to pick from, I'll go with Zimmerman because he's done it over a full season.

Left Fielder - RYAN BRAUN, Brewers
His .324 average, .928 OPS and 30 RBI are among the lone highlights of this Brewers season.

Center Fielder -MARLON BYRD, Cubs
A solid center fielder hitting with power and a good average. A good Cubs signing? What are the chances?

Right Fielder -JAYSON WERTH, Phillies
If Andre Ethier wasn't hurt, he'd get my vote. Heck, Ethier might win the MVP. But for now, the healthy Werth with his .327 average, 1.048 OPS and 9 homers gets the nod.

AMERICAN LEAGUE:

Cather - JOE MAUER, Twins
The defending AL MVP is earning his dough with a .346 average and a .911 OPS

First Base - JUSTIN MORNEAU, Twins
Morneau leads the AL in hitting, OPS and is only 3 homers away from the home run lead.

Second Base - ROBINSON CANO, Yankees
A .335 hitters with a .956 OPS and 9 homers, Cano is becoming the next Yankee superstar.

Shortstop - DEREK JETER, Yankees
His stats will be there when the season ends. Who would rather see? Jeter or Yuniesky Betancourt?

Third Base - EVAN LONGORIA, Rays
Calm down Yankee fans. Longoria is putting up better numbers than A-Rod. Besides, I'm starting Jeter and Cano!

Left Fielder - CARL CRAWFORD, Rays
Hitting .322 for a terrific team is a smart move on his walk year.

Center Fielder - VERNON WELLS, Blue Jays
The comeback player of the year? 11 homers already to go with a .944 OPS.

Right Fielder - ICHIRO SUZUKI, Mariners
His .352 average, second in the AL, is the lone bright spot for the Mariners this year.

Designated Hitter - VLADIMIR GUERRERO, Rangers
Think the angels could use 10 homers, a .339 average and a .927 OPS?

BALLOT TWO: The First Time All Star Ballot

For some players, going to the Midseason Classic is old hat. For everyone on THIS ballot, it is their first time going and a chance to finally have the title All Star attached to their name.

Some of these names surprised me that they weren't All Stars. But, according to Baseball Reference they weren't... and why would Baseball-Reference lie to me?

NATIONAL LEAGUE:

Catcher - ROD BARAJAS, Mets
Yup, he is on two of my ballots. A smart move by Omar Minaya.

First Base - JOEY VOTTO, Reds
Leads all qualifying NL first basemen in hitting and OPS and has 10 homers to boot.

Second Base - KELLY JOHNSON, Diamondbacks
How does this guy have 12 homers already? And why did the Braves give up on him?

Shortstop - STEPHEN DREW, Diamondbacks
A playoff hero in 2007, Drew is flirting with .300 as a regular.

Third Base - CASEY McGEHEE, Brewers
He leads the NL in RBI and is only one behind Miguel Cabrera for the best in baseball.

Left Fielder - JOSH WILLINGHAM, Nationals
Has some power and a flair for the dramatic. He also has a .929 OPS as well.

Center Fielder -MARLON BYRD, Cubs
Like Barajas, is on both ballots. His signing slid under the radar last off season.

Right Fielder - JASON HEYWARD, Braves
Probably the first of many All Star selections.

AMERICAN LEAGUE:

Cather - JOHN BUCK, Blue Jays
The main piece in the Carlos Beltran trade is leading AL Catchers in homers... just not with the Royals!

First Base - KENDRY MORALES, Angels
I had to double check, but Morales is indeed an All Star virgin.

Second Base - TY WIGGINTON, Orioles
Not sure what position to put him in... but his 13 homers and .960 OPS deserves a spot on the team.

Shortstop - ELVIS ANDRUS, Rangers
Think the Braves are regretting the Mark Teixera trade?

Third Base - ADRIAN BELTRE, Red Sox
Nope, Beltre has never been an All Star before. His .335 average merits a spot now.

Left Fielder - SHIN-SOO CHOO, Indians
Think the Mariners could use his left handed swing with power now? Cleveland is happy to have him.

Center Fielder - AUSTIN JACKSON, Tigers
With Granderson hurt and Jackson hitting, not a lot of people are complaining about that trade now!

Right Fielder - JOSE BAUTISTA, Blue Jays
Did you know he was currently tied with Paul Konerko for most homers in the big leagues?

Designated Hitter - JOSE GUILLEN, Royals
Surprisingly, Guillen, with his 11 homers and 31 RBI, would be a first time All Star as well.

BALLOT THREE: The Anti All Star Ballot

The final ballot I like to call my "Sanjaya Ballot." Basically I am trying to find the absolute worst combination of players. Inevitably you will see there are players on the All Star Ballot who are barely even playing. They don't have a crystal ball handy when they make up the ballots so they don't know who is going to get hurt, stink up the joint or need psychiatric treatment.

So I found what I think is the best combination of players who are either off to awful starts, are hurt or got cut from their teams... and seeing one or two of these guys get elected might prompt baseball to reconsider the whole "Let Fans Vote" thing.

NATIONAL LEAGUE:

Cather - J. R. TOWLES, Astros
He has only 9 hits all year and he is hitting .191 with no power. But he DOES have 8 RBI... a pretty good hit to RBI ratio!

First Base - JEFF CLEMENT, Pirates
The Pirates thought they were getting a solid bat from Seattle, not a .180 hitter with 6 extra base hits.

Second Base - KAZ MATSUI, Astros
Remember when he was going to be the next big Mets star? Now he is the the latest unemployed Astro.

Shortstop - TOMMY MANZELLA, Astros
Another sub .200 hitter in the Astros lineup. His OPS doesn't bust .500... and neither will the Astros!

Third Base - ARAMIS RAMIREZ, Cubs
He has a hurt thumb, which would account for the .160 average and sub .500 OPS. Another unmovable Cub.

Left Fielder - CARLOS LEE, Astros
Yup. Another Astro. $19 million should buy you better than a .196 average, 5 homers and a .325 slugging percentage.

Center Fielder - CARLOS BELTRAN, Mets
The face of the Mets hasn't played a game all year. He's not even healthy enough to not swing at an Adam Wainwright pitch.

Right Fielder - MARK DeROSA, Giants
He was supposed to bring offense and versatility to the Giants line up. Instead he brought a .194 average, no power and a trip to the DL.

AMERICAN LEAGUE:

Cather - GERALD LAIRD, Tigers
He was never an offensive powerhouse... but a .155 average? .237 slugging? Yikes!

First Base - CASEY KOTCHMAN, Mariners
He used to flirt with .300. Now he is hitting .196. But his 3 homers almost is tops with the MarinerS!

Second Base - BRIAN ROBERTS, Orioles
The One time legit All Star wasn't producing before an abdominal injury sidelined him.

Shortstop - ADAM EVERETT, Tigers
A .197 average and .258 slugging percentage an All Star does not make.

Third Base - BRANDON WOOD, Angels
The perennial prospect is hitting .156 with an OPS of .381.

Left Fielder - MILTON BRADLEY, Mariners
To the surprise of nobody, he hasn't produced. He at least has asked for help.

Center Fielder - GRADY SIZEMORE, Indians
He's a Gold Glove and Silver Slugger winner. But this year he's hitting .211 with a .560 OPS, no power and languishing on the disabled list.

Right Fielder - MATT LaPORTA, Indians
The the Brewers sell the Indians a bill of goods? They certainly didn't sell them the slugger they thought they were getting.

Designated Hitter - PAT BURRELL, Rays
The Burrell in Tampa Bay experiment ended with his release after only 16 homers over a year and 2 months.



There you have it. Three ballots... three different thought processes.

Vote often. Vote insanely.
It's the American Way!

Bengie Molina is no dummy

Molina resigned with the Giants today and just about every report calls the move a surprise.

He's been negotiating with the Mets for what seems like all off season and his going to Queens seemed like a mere formality.

Instead he is heading back to China Basin for another year in Black and Orange.

Why is this a surprise?

If he were going to spend the year in a pitchers ballpark for a team in transition, why not go to the team whose front office ISN'T in turmoil?

Why not go to the team that ISN'T fighting with its star centerfielder over surgery?

Why not go to the team whose owner DIDN'T lose tons of money with Bernie Madoff?

Why not stay with the team whose geographical rival ISN'T the World Champions but instead is a team that plays in a football stadium and doesn't even broadcast all of their games?

Why not go to the team whose assistant GM ISN'T ripping his shirt off and picking fights with minor leaguers?

Why not go to the team that ISN'T playing in the same division as the two time defending National League Champs?

Why not go to the team that DOES have the 2 time defending Cy Young winner? His pot fine is paid. All is good.

In the end, staying with the Giants shouldn't have been a surprise at all.

Bengie Molina is no dummy. He knows the Mets are falling apart.

Maybe he read my post about the Mets needing to dismantle the team and decided to stay by the Bay.

Oh let me think that.

The Mets need to dismantle NOW

There is a moment in GoodFellas when Sonny, the owner of the Bamboo Lounge, is agreeing to burn down his place of business. He looks resigned and says it is "a f---ing shame."

But he goes through with it. There was no way for it to succeed.

Folks... that's where the Mets are right now.
They are destined to be a disaster. They are going to have another $100 million payroll 90 loss season.

With Omar Minaya, whose Jeff Zucker like track record makes his employment baffles me, signing the likes of Kelvim Escobar (he of 1 game over the past 2 seasons) and bringing in Jason Bay to the worst home run hitting park in the world... it just smells like catastrophe.

And now they not only are not going to start the season with Carlos Beltran but they can't even have a consensus of who said what about his knee!


The Mets play in a division with a loaded Phillies team, a talented Marlins team and an improving Braves team.

The Mets aren't going to be better than any of those teams.

The Central have contenders like the Brewers, Cubs and Cardinals. The West have the Rockies, Giants and Dodgers.

There are very few teams right now the Mets are BETTER than!

Seriously, does anyone see the Mets as better than a .500 team?

And they are the worst kind of .500 team. They are like the Braves... not the Division winners that tormented the Mets from 1995-2005.... but the powder blue Dale Murphy era Braves that were filled with veterans and no hope.

At this point there is more hope if you are a Nationals fan, knowing that Strasburg isn't far away and they have the top pick again THIS year!

I know the Mets were riddled with injuries last year, but the team is OLDER now... and if Beltran's knee is any sign, healthier days are not ahead.

Blow it up.

Mark the day. January 15, 2010... Paul Sullivan of Sully Baseball is saying the Mets season is lost and the franchise would be better off admitting it.

Spare me the nonsense of "New Yorkers won't tolerate anything other than a championship franchise."

I heard that garbage about the Rangers and the Knicks... and they kept bringing in veterans until both teams were expensive, bloated and nowhere near the playoffs... let alone a title.

Ask Ranger and Knick fans during the 2000s if they would rather see an old bloated team with mercenaries lose a lot of games or young hungry players lose a lot of games.

The best thing that EVER happened to the Yankees were the horrific years of the early 1990s (and Steinbrenner's suspension.) They stunk and were irrelevant, but built up a core that included Derek Jeter, Mariano Rivera, Andy Pettitte and Bernie Williams.

Suddenly the Yankees, who had NO prescience in the city in 1992 became the toast of the city in 1996.

The Mets need to start that clock now.

They need to build the first loved team in CitiField history.
Not in a few years.

Now.

RIGHT NOW! Before I finish typing this sentence.

Deal Santana, K-Rod, Bay, Reyes and yes maybe even Wright.

Stockpile the farm with solid players and build a winner from the ground up. It isn't happening this year, so why pretend.

I don't care if their ads claim they are going for it this year... they shouldn't.

They have to do it eventually... why not do it now?

I know they won't... I know they'll act like the team is a player or two away from the pennant (even though they are coming off of a 92 loss season!)

But I wanted to say so now!
You can't say "I told you so" unless you told them so.

Sorry Met fans, but this YouTube video makes me laugh

The scene of course is Game 7 of the 2006 NLCS.
Bases are loaded, Mets down by two, 2 outs, 2 strikes on Carlos Beltran.

The pitcher is inexperienced closer Adam Wainwright and Beltran is a Cardinal killer. A base hit would tie the game.

And extra base hit would win the pennant for the Mets and send them to the World Series against an inferior Tigers team.

And of course Beltran was called out looking.

But you know all of that.

What cracks me up is the guy shooting this video to me represents Met fans everywhere.

You hear his anticipation right up until the called third.

Then comes the agony. The Nooooooo! that is usually reserved for Luke Skywalker he realizes who his dad really is.

But then he goes right into Mets fan defensive humor.

"Oh my goodness what a dive!" he says with a disbelieving laugh. And my favorite moment is "There they come" when the Cardinals celebrate followed by more disbelief.

And that little laugh comes from a dark place, the place that says "I can't believe I allowed myself to think my team was going to win."

The guy sounds a little like Joe Beningo.

For those of you who think New York sports fans are spoiled because they win all the championships, listen to this guy's voice.

That's the sound of a guy who is a Met fan and I bet a Jets fan, a Rangers fan and a Knicks fan.

There's a lot of hurt in that voice.

What will Mets fans regret the most?

1) The fact that they will be reminded of 2007 every time a team is up by 7 games with 17 to go?

Think they'll forget? It will be mentioned along with the 1951 Dodgers, 1964 Phillies and 1978 Red Sox.

2) The fact that the Mets lost to so many tomato cans AT HOME?

Yeah the two Phillies sweeps were rough, but they went home for their last 7 games against the pathetic Nationals, the already make plane reservations Cardinals and the flopping Marlins. They won a grand total of one game.

3) The fact that they lost the Division to Philadelphia?

As a Red Sox fan who lived in New York... trust me, when your team loses to a team whose fans you interact with all the time... it hurts more.

It's what made 2004 so unique to Yankees fans. When the Yankees lost, they'd lose to obscure fan bases (Florida, Anaheim, Arizona, Seattle) or fan bases they didn't see much of (Los Angeles, Kansas City, Cincinnati).

You had to go all the way back to 1955 to see the Yankees lose to a team that was close to them (the Brooklyn Dodgers) and even then, the team left town 2 years later.

The Red Sox aren't going anywhere and we haven't let the Yankees forget it.
I'm sure Yankee fans haven't let you guys forget 2000 nor the 24 more titles.

Now get ready to hear it from Phillies fans.

4) The fact that some fans prematurely claimed the city?

It's safe to say the Mets have not claimed the city as their own. And any A-Rod/Jeter vs. Wright/Reyes debate seems pretty decisive.

5) The fact that the window might be closing?

There are some young pieces on this team but a lot of old ones as well... and the Mets were clearly built for right now. And with a wide open National League (and a chance to open the post season at home) the Mets blew a prime chance to potentially go to the World Series.

6) The fact that Beltran was caught looking last year?

Who knew that Carlos looking at strike three might have been the Mets last chance to go to the Series in a long while.