There are no such thing as ugly wins

Yeah, that was a lot closer than it should have been last night.

Yeah, when the Red Sox are up 5-1 in the 9th I should never hear the Tigers announcer say the words "And the tying run is coming to the plate with nobody out."

But Papelbon struck out the side... and that's all that matters.

Pile up the W's. Doesn't matter if they are ugly. Doesn't matter if Papelbon looks more vulnerable.

I'm glad Dice-K got his first win, but the only thing that matters is a Red Sox pitcher gets the W.

It also helps to put that seed of doubt in upstart teams like the Tigers.

Beckett tonight. Win the Series.

So is Roy Halladay just a freak of nature?

With Randy Johnson on the verge of 300 wins tonight, everyone seems to be lamenting the end of the 300 game winners.

As if the kind of ace pitcher who would win 15-20 year in and year out will go the way of the dodo.

Meanwhile last night in Toronto, a certain pitcher showed us all how it is done.

Halladay struck out 14 batters in a game the Blue Jays needed to win in order to keep pace with the Red Sox and Yankees.

But here's the other amazing part. When he got into trouble (and please sit down when you are reading this) he was allowed to pitch himself out of a jam.

He threw 133 pitches, and yet nobody is airlifting him to the Cleveland Clinic to see if his arm needs amputation.

Is he a freak of nature, this pitcher who throws complete games and consistently leads or is in the league lead of innings pitched?

I wonder how many pitchers who have been babied out of the minor leagues could have flourished the way Halladay did if they were allowed to pitch.

Is Halladay more talented than say Tim Hudson? 

Maybe. Maybe not. But by age 25 Halladay was leading the league in innings pitched.

And now with a 9-1 record, his low ERA and leading the league in innings pitched, he seems well on track for his 5th top five finish for the Cy Young Award (including 4 straight top 5 finishes and winning the award in 2003.)

Why can Halladay do it and others can't? Or maybe they aren't allowed to.

Halladay has 140 career wins. He isn't even halfway to 300. 

I predict he will win at least 10 more games this year and get to the halfway point at age 32.

Then he would have to average 15 wins a year between 2010 and 2019.

How's about this for a prediction?

Come back to Sully Baseball in 2019. We'll be celebrating Roy Halladay on the verge of 300 wins. And people will be saying about Halladay the same thing we are saying about Randy Johnson... will we ever see it again.

Sure we will. 

If you let pitchers PITCH!

(By 2019 blogging will seem as quaint as CB radios now... I'll be 47 and my twin boys will be 14 years old and embarassed that their old man is still blogging!)

This is NOT how you reverse a curse

I know I shouldn't be crowing about my predictions these days.

After all, I picked the Oakland A's to win the World Series, so I can't claim extra sensory powers.

But in Predictions #37 and #38 of my 40 Fearless Predictions are looking pretty spot on.

I never understood why Milton Bradley was considered to be a good fit in Chicago and so far I haven't been proven wrong.

His stats stink and he's had a groin injury, a quad injury and now a calf strain. Not the best use of $30 million.

But that was a brilliant move compared to Kevin Gregg. 

I said it was stupid to trade for him in my fearless predictions.

I said it at the beginning of the year.

He ended any chances for the Marlins in 2008 and last night as the Cubs coughed away a 5-0 lead in the 8th... highlighted by a 2 run 2 out game tying homer off of Gregg.

30% of the way through the season and the team that everyone but me picked to win the Central (and many saw winning the pennant) are at .500.

And yes they are only 4 games back, but they need to leap frog 3 other teams. And the Reds, Brewers and Cardinals don't have the 101 year pressure and a manager about to blow his stack.

And if any of those teams need to make a deal, they don't have an ownership in flux.

What I am saying is, I don't feel so dumb for NOT picking the Cubs.

It doesn't make up for my picking the A's... but it's a start.

May is done... and Sully can be right and he can be wrong

There's a long way to go until the end of the season... but it's not THAT early!
More or less 1/3 of the season is in the books and this is the time we start separating the good from the bad...
The contenders from the pretenders...

And everyone else from the Nationals and the A's.


And as I did when April ended, I think we should take a look at how my my picks are panning out at the end of two months.

DIVISION AND WILD CARD PICKS

AL East - NEW YORK YANKEES

As recently as May 13th, the day before my birthday, the Yankees were a sub .500 team.
Everyone was having a laugh. There was even talk of firing Girardi.

They are 13-4 since and are now in first place by themselves. Plus with Phil Hughes and Joba Chamberlain pitching well with Sabathia, and You Know Who back helping the lineup, the Yankees look poised to beat up a bunch of teams in June.

Verdict: SOLID PICK.

AL Central - MINNESOTA TWINS

After a .500 April, the Twins got Joe Mauer back. He homered in his first game back and I thought the Twins were off and running.

Instead, despite sweeping the first place Tigers, finished below .500 in May. A four game sweep by the Yankees (all walk off losses) hamstrung the team.

Still, only 4 1/2 games back and the Tigers could collapse.

Verdict: NOT LOOKING TOO GOOD NOW... COULD TURN AROUND

AL West - OAKLAND A'S

Who would have thought the A's would look back at their 8-11 April as "The Good Old Days"?

The Angels have struggled as I predicted and a team filled the vacuum... but it turned out to be the upstart Rangers instead of the Hindenberg-esque A's.

There's nothing to analyze. Without a major turnaround they will have their third straight losing season. The previous 8 seasons were all winning seasons including 5 playoff appearances.

The losing began when Bob Geren arrived. He is still employed. The Bermuda Triangle is a less baffling mystery than Geren's employment.

Verdict: THE WORST PREDICTION OF THE DECADE THAT DIDN'T INVOLVE IRAQ

AL Wild Card - BOSTON RED SOX

The Octomom's babies have one fewer homers than Ortiz and are tied with Dice-K with wins.

Throw in Lester's 5.65 ERA, Penny's 5.63 ERA, more teeth grinding games than dodged bullets and a surging Yankees team and the Red Sox look like they are in deep trouble.

Except a week ago they were the best team in the AL. 

And as of this writing would be the Wild Card team with a sickeningly deep bullpen, All Star worthy contributions from Youkilis, Pedroia, Bay and Lowell, surprising pop from Varitek and Josh Beckett finding his stuff.

Throw in an improving Lester and reinforcements coming for the pitching staff and the Red Sox look like they can absorb the rapid decline of Big Papi.

Verdict: SOLID PICK... AND EXPECT SOME CHANGES

NL East - PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES

Brett Myers, who has the lowest ERA on their ravaged starting rotation, is probably gone for the season. The rest of their rotation has 5+ ERAs and are looking everywhere for help.

Throw in the fact that Brad Lidge's ERA is 7.40 and Jimmy Rollins' .230 average and you would think the World Champs would be flopping.

Instead they are in first place, thanks in part to Raul Ibanez MVP bid.

Verdict: SOLID PICK THAT WILL NO DOUBT MAKE A DEAL FOR A PITCHER

NL Central - CINCINNATI REDS

I felt like the only person on the planet who DIDN'T pick the Cubs to win the Central. And while the Reds aren't in first, they are only 2 1/2 games behind the surprising Brewers. Plus they are getting power from Joey Votto, Jay Bruce and Brandon Phillips and their bullpen has a comically low ERA.

Shore up their starting pitching and they can make up a few games.

Verdict: COULD PAN OUT... AND I STILL THINK THE CUBS ARE A BUST

NL West - LOS ANGELES DODGERS

Sure this was an easy pick, especially when the Dodgers were rampaging through April and into early May.

Then you-know-who got suspended and the NL West was put into play.

Turmoil came to Dodgertown. What were they going to do without Manny?

They are 14-9 since and have opened up an 8 game lead on the Division. Two of the other NL West teams fired their managers. 

Not only is this race over, but Joe Torre might have manager of the year locked up as well.

Verdict: FORT KNOX ISN'T AS LOCKED UP AS THE NL WEST

NL Wild Card: ST. LOUIS CARDINALS

Another off the wall pick of mine... and unlike my A's pick this one looks smart.

Albert Pujols looks like he is well on his way to MVP #3 and Ryan Franklin is locking down the bullpen. 

Their three game sweep of the Cubs in mid May probably put Wrigleyville in panic mode. With the Brewers, Cardinals and Reds all looking solid, the Cubbies might end up in FOURTH!

Verdict: LOOKING GOOD SO FAR... DOESN'T CANCEL OUT THE OAKLAND PICK, BUT SOLID NONE THE LESS

June is starting up and today alone has potential playoff match ups in the AL.

The best team in the AL is playing in the Bronx tonight... I'm talking about the visiting Rangers.

Dice-K goes for win #1 in Detroit against rookie Rick Porcello, who has won his last 5 starts.

Roy Halladay goes for win #9 to revive the Blue Jays against an Angels team looking for new live.

Ichiro has a 26 game hitting streak to keep alive...

Johan Santana is gunning for another win, just as long as J. J. Putz doesn't live up to his name...

Speaking of bad names in harsh markets, Antonio Bastardo is making his debut for the Phillies. Would love to hear what they chant if he doesn't throw well!

Tim Lincecum is pitching tonight in Washington, who has a pitching staff so bad that the Giants might actually score a run...

Meanwhile the Reds and the Cardinals are squaring off as two teams trying to make up ground.

May is over... bring on June!

(And some more homers for Papi and wins for Dice-K!!!)

Sinking ship

On Thursday May 28th, I said the A's HAD to fire Bob Geren... if for no other reason than to shake the team up.

They are 1-4 since.

Only a 9th inning homer by Adam Kennedy on Sunday (after the A's blew a 4-0 lead) prevented a 4 game sweep in Texas.

Now they are only better than the Nationals.
They are on pace for 99 losses.

Meanwhile the Rangers are in first place with Ron Washington at the helm.

That being former A's third base coach Ron Washington.

That being former A's third base coach Ron Washington who was a candidate for the A's managing job in 2007 that instead went to Bob Geren.

It is now fascinating to think how bad the A's can fall...
And how TERRIBLE my prediction can wind up!

What is it with Joba in Cleveland?

The Midges were back!

There were birds flying around and at one point I thought they were going to swarm around Joba and make him the Yankees answer to Tippi Hedren. 

I was convinced at any moment frogs were going to fall from the sky.

But one one night he found the perfect compromise for people who want him to start and those who want him to pitch the 8th inning.

He started and lasted into the 8th inning!

(A novel idea! They let a big strong pitcher pitch!)

Cleveland Fans... MOVE TO FLORIDA!

There are many reasons to move to Florida.

The sunshine... the affordable housing... the wonderful collection of loons that populate the state... easy to comprehend ballots...

But add to that list "Championship caliber sports" almost no matter what kind of sport you follow.

We Boston fans can be a little obnoxious in claiming this decade for ourselves in terms of sports titles.

Detroit fans can crow a lot with the Red Wings halfway to their third Stanley Cup this decade to go with an NBA Title for the Pistons and the 2006 AL Pennant for the Tigers.

But for the joy of rooting for a winner (a feeling that is delayed for 4 1/2 decades and counting in Cleveland) where can you find more winners and in more different categories than Florida this decade?

The Florida State Seminoles won the 2000 Sugar Bowl for the BCS Title
The University of Miami Hurricanes won the 2002 Rose Bowl for the BCS Title
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers won Super Bowl XXXVII in 2003.
The Florida Marlins won the 2003 World Series
The Tampa Bay Lightning won the 2004 Stanley Cup
The Miami Heat won the 2006 NBA Finals
The University of Florida Gators won the 2006 and 2007 Division 1 Basketball Title.
The University of Florida Gators won the 2007 and 2009 BCS Title

And some other highlights

The Florida State Seminoles played in the 2001 Orange Bowl for the BCS Title but lost
The University of Miami Hurricanes played in the 2003 Fiesta Bowl for the BCS Title but lost
The Tampa Bay Rays won the 2008 AL Pennant but lost the World Series to the Phillies.

And now the Orlando Magic has made it all the way to the NBA Finals.

Practically the only Florida team that HASN'T had a highlight has been the most famous Florida team, the Miami Dolphins.

(OK, fine... the Jacksonville Jaguars and the Florida Panthers haven't booked a parade route recently.)

I guess the best advice I can give to Cleveland fans is this...

Move to Florida!

Remember that 1997 World Series and 2009 Eastern Conference Final that put a bad taste in your mouth?

In Florida, those were HAPPY occasions!

Not convinced?

Here's winter in Cleveland.

Here's winter in Florida.

See the difference?

Come on. Book a flight.