Chances are there will be an upset in the Division Series

As we get ready to start the second to last day of the season, not one single Division Series match up is official yet… and that’s pretty cool.

All four AL participants are in, but will it be Rays/Rangers?

Yankees/Twins? Rays/Twins? Yankees/Rangers?

It can’t be Yankees/Rays… the logic of which will be questioned in another post.

And we know the Phillies and Reds are in… but the game of musical chairs between the Giants, Padres and Braves has at least another day.

Once the match ups are set, everyone and their moose (including yours truly) will be making their picks.

I can’t tell you who is going to win what… but I WILL say that you shouldn’t put too much weight on which team has Home Field Advantage. Historically at least you can bet a team or two starting the series on the road will advance to the League Championship Series.

Since the creation of the Division Series, only twice has the World Series been played between the National League team with the best record and the American League team with the best record. (1995 when the Braves beat the Cleveland Indians and 1999 when the Yankees swept the Braves.)

But the League Championship Series also rarely has the 1 and 2 seeds. Since the first annual Division Series in 1995, only once did both the NLCS and ALCS been played by the four teams who had home field advantage in the first round:

Last year… when the Phillies and Dodgers played in the NLCS and the Yankees and Angels played in the ALCS.

Now you could argue I should include 1995 when the Reds, Braves, Mariners and Indians all advanced. But remember because of the mind bogglingly stupid home field rules used in the first 3 years of Division Series play, the Indians didn’t have home field advantage in the Division Series, even though they won more games than anyone in baseball that year!

Each year after that, there was an upset or two… or three… or in 2002 there were four.

Wild Card teams advanced to the ALCS in 1996, 1999, 2000, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2006 and 2008.

Wild Card teams advanced to the NLCS in 1997, 1999, 2000, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005 and 2007.

Underdog Division winners advanced to the ALCS in 2002 and 2006.

And underdog Division winners moved on to the NLCS in 1996, 1998, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2006 and 2008.

So make your picks and use whatever methods you want.

Look at stats. Look at history. Flip a coin. Stare into at your parrot until you see the winner’s logo appear in their eyes.

But if you just pick all the teams with home field, chances are you’ll get burnt.

Chances are there will be an upset in the Division Series

As we get ready to start the second to last day of the season, not one single Division Series match up is official yet… and that’s pretty cool.

All four AL participants are in, but will it be Rays/Rangers?

Yankees/Twins? Rays/Twins? Yankees/Rangers?

It can’t be Yankees/Rays… the logic of which will be questioned in another post.

And we know the Phillies and Reds are in… but the game of musical chairs between the Giants, Padres and Braves has at least another day.

Once the match ups are set, everyone and their moose (including yours truly) will be making their picks.

I can’t tell you who is going to win what… but I WILL say that you shouldn’t put too much weight on which team has Home Field Advantage. Historically at least you can bet a team or two starting the series on the road will advance to the League Championship Series.

Since the creation of the Division Series, only twice has the World Series been played between the National League team with the best record and the American League team with the best record. (1995 when the Braves beat the Cleveland Indians and 1999 when the Yankees swept the Braves.)

But the League Championship Series also rarely has the 1 and 2 seeds. Since the first annual Division Series in 1995, only once did both the NLCS and ALCS been played by the four teams who had home field advantage in the first round:

Last year… when the Phillies and Dodgers played in the NLCS and the Yankees and Angels played in the ALCS.

Now you could argue I should include 1995 when the Reds, Braves, Mariners and Indians all advanced. But remember because of the mind bogglingly stupid home field rules used in the first 3 years of Division Series play, the Indians didn’t have home field advantage in the Division Series, even though they won more games than anyone in baseball that year!

Each year after that, there was an upset or two… or three… or in 2002 there were four.

Wild Card teams advanced to the ALCS in 1996, 1999, 2000, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2006 and 2008.

Wild Card teams advanced to the NLCS in 1997, 1999, 2000, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005 and 2007.

Underdog Division winners advanced to the ALCS in 2002 and 2006.

And underdog Division winners moved on to the NLCS in 1996, 1998, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2006 and 2008.

So make your picks and use whatever methods you want.

Look at stats. Look at history. Flip a coin. Stare into at your parrot until you see the winner’s logo appear in their eyes.

But if you just pick all the teams with home field, chances are you’ll get burnt.

I want Ramiro Mendoza to remain the answer to a wonderful trivia question

If Red Sox/Yankees was a category on Jeopardy, an answer could be "He is the only living player with World Series rings as a Yankee and a Red Sox."

And the correct response would be "Who is Ramiro Mendoza?"

Mendoza was a middle reliever on the 1998 and 1999 World Series rosters and in fact was the pitcher on the mound when the Yankees won the 1999 AL Pennant in Fenway Park (one of the few times Joe Torre let a pitcher other than Mariano Rivera finish off a series.) Truth be told, Mendoza should have been the series MVP over El Duque Hernandez, but that's another story.

In 2004, Mendoza was a member of the Red Sox. He pitched in the ALCS against the Yankees and had the dishonor of getting the loss in the 19-8 Game 3 massacre... it was also the last loss the 2004 Red Sox would have as they won the last 4 of the ALCS and all 4 games of the World Series.

That was it. The Babe Ruths and Carl Mays and all the other former Red Sox champs who were sold to the Yankees are all dead.

Mendoza remains alone.

But this year, two names threaten to join him.

Johnny Damon and Eric Hinske.

































Damon everyone remembers (and some have forgiven.)

Hinske, lest we forget, was a seldom used pinch hitter on the 2007 Red Sox and is now a seldom used pinch hitter on the 2009 Yankees. But he was on the Division Series roster and is now on the World Series roster.

And last year, Hinske was a member of the Rays and struck out to end the series (and was then analyzed by my wife.)

I have nothing against Damon or Hinske and I appreciate all they did in a Red Sox uniform...

But I hope in a few weeks the answer to that trivia question remains simply "Ramiro Mendoza."

It's not exactly "Win one for the Gipper"

Win one for Steinbrenner!

That's the rallying cry?

That's the Yankee's answer to winning a game for Brian Piccolo?

In the past the Yankees were inspired by Frank Torre's heart transplant (1996), Darryl Strawberry's cancer (1998), Paul O'Neill and Luis Sojo's dad (1999) and of course all of New York in the wake of September 11 (2001.)

Now it comes down to "Hey, the checks this guy has written have cleared so far... maybe we should win."

I'm not saying it isn't good motivation... just don't expect the rest of us to get choked up that George FINALLY won his 7th title.

SULLY BASEBALL HONORS... Mariano Rivera

Hey, I don't usually write glowing praising e mails to Yankees... especially those who won the MVP of the 2003 ALCS against my Red Sox.

But last night he got his 500th save. Now the save can be overrated. I have trashed All Time Saves leader Trevor Hoffman a few times because I think that despite his 571 saves, he's not someone I'd want on the mound in a big game.

Don't believe me? Read it and weep.

But Rivera? He's been the best or one of the best for 14 straight seasons... and let's look at that post season.

Imagine if a closer had a 0.77 ERA over 117 1/3 innings. Posting an 8-1 record with 34 saves, striking out 93 while walking only 16.

That would be a hell of a season.

That's his post season totals. 

His only loss was Game 7 of the 2001 World Series. And his failure there and in the 2004 ALCS were so unlikely that they were considered to be two of the most miraculous comebacks ever.

If a team has a comeback in the playoffs against Trevor Hoffman, it is called "par for the course."

And let's see Rivera in one day vanquish another overrated rival, Francisco Rodriguez. Now I have already written about why I think Rodriguez is overrated... but last night gave us all a unique head to head match up... closer versus closer... that put Rivera on top without debate.

Frankie Rodriguez, K-Rod, walked Rivera with the bases loaded. 

In a head to head match up, K-Rod couldn't throw one down the heart of the plate.

Was he expecting that Rivera would take him deep? He had 5 career plate appearances before last night. There were two outs. Lob it!

Nope. He couldn't do it. He was head to head with his superior and lost.

We Sox fans can shake our heads at Rivera and grind our teeth... but we can't deny he belongs with Gossage, Fingers, Eckersley and Wilhelm as the best reliever of all time.

And part of me would like to see him pass Hoffman as the saves leader so we won't have any silly arguments about Hoffman being a Hall of Famer.

But I hope Rivera does it in another uniform.

Can we play the White Sox again, please?

It was so much more fun beating them like a pinata.

Well, as I said earlier in the year, one of the advantages of jumping out to a big lead is you can withstand a smack to the face.

Just imagine if the Tigers and Yankees split last weekend and the Red Sox only won 3 out of 4... it would be a 3 game lead. The Red Sox lead hasn't been that small since April 26. The Yankees haven't been only 3 games out since they lost in Fenway on April 21.

But they aren't. It's a 5 game lead going into Labor Day weekend. The sweep stunk... but in 1999 with the Yankees ahead of the Red Sox in the standings, the Red Sox came into Yankee Stadium and swept them, including a wild game on September 11th where the Sox won 11-10 and cut the lead to a mere 3 1/2 games.

Do you remember that?
OF COURSE YOU DON'T! The Yankees dusted themselves off, cruised to a division title and won the World Series... beating the Red Sox in 5 games in the ALCS and sweeping the Braves in a World Series I bet you don't remember.