At the beginning of the year I made my 40 Fearless Predictions... and I also made my divisional picks...I am sure some look prophetic and others looked pathetic.
I don't hide from my bad picks.
In fact I sometimes flaunt them.
Either way, how are my fearless 40 doing?
1. THE YANKEES WILL MAKE THE POST SEASON BUT NOT MAKE IT TO THE WORLD SERIES... AND JOE GIRARDI WILL BE FIRED IN NOVEMBER
As of this writing the Yankees are in the Wild Card spot despite a rotten start, an A-Rod injury a tattered bullpen and panic in the Bronx in April.
That bodes well for their playoff hopes. Their 5-15 record against teams currently in first place doesn't bode well for it being a deep playoff run. And if they miss the ALCS, Girardi will wish he took that Baltimore job a few years ago.
2. THE RED SOX WILL MAKE THE PLAYOFFS BUT MISS THE WORLD SERIES. FRANCONA'S JOB IS SAFESo far the Sox have the best record in the American League. But October is a strange month and the Tigers could be that kind of team that wins a game in Fenway and next thing you know the Sox are facing elimination on the road.
Either way, Francona isn't going anywhere.
3. IF DAVID ORTIZ'S BAT IS SLOWING DOWN, HE'LL BE ON THE TRADE BLOCKWhen Ortiz was well below Mendoza's standard and had one more homer than me, the Red Sox would have dealt him in a heartbeat if they could find a taker.
Now he's hitting again and all of Red Sox nation aren't watching his at bats as if we were watching Charlie Brown in the spelling bee.
4. THERE WILL BE A HOMOSEXUAL SCANDAL SURROUNDING ALEX RODRIGUEZ
There are still 2 1/2 months to the season... and you know it is possible.
5. FRANCISCO RODRIGUEZ WILL FLOP WITH THE METS
If you told me that one game after the All Star Break the Mets would be 4 games UNDER .500 and trailing the Phillies by 7 1/2 games, 8 in the loss column, I would be almost 100% certain this prediction came true.
But alas, this is one of my stinkers.
If you told me that one game after the All Star Break the Mets would be 4 games UNDER .500 and trailing the Phillies by 7 1/2 games, 8 in the loss column, I would be almost 100% certain this prediction came true.
But alas, this is one of my stinkers.
K-Rod has possibly been the only bright spot for the wretched Mets team. And I have a hunch that his spotty post season record won't be tested this year.
Well I still have no clue why the Red Sox didn't resign him after the 2004 World Series... and that was exasperated today with the dumping of Julio Lugo.
But that doesn't cover up the fact that Cabrera's 2009 season has hardly been awe inspiring, and the A's frankly stink.
But more on that later.
7. VLAD GUERRERO WILL NOT BE A FACTOR THIS YEAR DUE TO INJURIES... AND THE ANGELS WILL PLUMMET IN THE STANDINGSWell, Vlad is on the DL now and his numbers are hardly MVP worthy.
And the team suffered injuries, slumps and tragedy in the first half. The fact they remain in first place at this point in the season is a terrific argument for Mike Scioscia's second manager of the year award.
8. ROY OSWALT PITCHES IN THE WORLD SERIES THIS YEAR... JUST NOT WITH THE ASTROS
One of the great things about the parity in baseball, especially in the National League, is the majority of teams are still in it after the All Star break.
The bad thing is most teams think they have a shot.
The Astros are old and while a game over .500, don't have a shot. They need a shot in the arm (and not the kind Miguel Tejada used to get.)
Trading Roy Oswalt would fetch them 2 or maybe 3 building blocks. This prediction is logically sound. The same can't be said for the management of the Houston Astros.
9. J. P. RICCIARDI AND CITO GASTON ARE FIRED BY MID JULY.
Well, it is Mid July now... and they both still have jobs.
But the feel good story of the year doesn't feel so good anymore. On May 18th, the Blue Jays were in first place with a 3 1/2 game lead on the Red Sox heading into Boston to make a statement.
They are 17-32 since, have a losing record and are dangling Roy Halladay the way the Astros should be dealing Roy Oswalt.
If the Orioles continue improving, the Blue Jays could finish in the cellar.
Cox has nothing left to prove, but I have the feeling he wants to leave the Braves as a winner. The team no longer has Maddux, Glavine or Smoltz and the new Braves are hovering around .500.
So far this prediction is wrong, but if they finish above .500 for the season, I think he'll call it a Hall of Fame career.
11. THE BREWERS SLIDE BACK INTO MEDIOCRITY AND PRINCE FIELDER HITS THE TRADE BLOCKNow THIS what you call a lousy prediction... at least so far.
The Brewers are a modest winning streak away from being a first place team.
They are also a 4 game losing streak away from being sub .500.
Ah, the perils of parity in the National League.
12. THE UPTON BROTHERS BOTH HAVE BREAKOUT YEARS.Well Justin is holding up his end of the bargain. He's already established a career high in homers and RBI, has a batting average of .301, an OPS of .918 and made his first All Star team.
B.J. came back from surgery slowly... like sub .180 batting average and sub .500 OPS slowly.
But he got his average up to the .240s and his OPS in the .700s... maybe he'll have a monster second half.
13. CHAD TRACY WILL HIT 25 HOMERS AND MAKE THE ALL STAR TEAMThis was a hunch pick.
I thought the D'Backs were going to be decent and I thought some of their bats were going to wake up.
Instead Bob Melvin is searching the help wanted section and Chad Tracy missed all of June with injuries.
14. MANNY RAMIREZ WILL HIT 50 HOMERS, WIN THE NL MVP AND TAKE A WIZZ ON THE LEFT FIELD SCOREBOARDOh yeah, like YOU knew he was going to test positive!
Missing 50 games makes 50 homers a stretch.
There's still time for him to take a leak on the scoreboard.
15. THE GIANTS WILL CONTEND FOR THE NL WEST CROWN INTO SEPTEMBER
Don't look now, but the Giants are a playoff team. They have a 1 1/2 game lead for the Wild Card as I type this.
And also, don't look now, but that Dodger lead, which was 9 1/2 games in early June is down to 6 1/2.
A good August by the Giants, whose starting rotation is looking scarier by the week, and a mediocre month from the Dodgers could bring SF to within striking distance.
Just saying.
16. THE NL WEST WON'T BE AS BAD AS PEOPLE THINKThe Dodgers have baseball's best record.
The Giants are the wild card team.
Jim Tracy has righted the ship in Colorado.
Only the Padres (division champs of 2005 and 2006) and the Diamondbacks (division champs of 2007) stink.
17. CLIFF LEE'S 2008 WAS A FLUKEThe whole Indians team has fallen apart and Lee isn't on anyone's short list for Cy Young contenders.
But his 3.31 ERA plus a few recent gems thrown should make him very very interesting trade bait for the Indians who need more pieces to the puzzle and probably won't be a pennant contender until Lee is in his mid 30s.
18. KEN GRIFFEY JR'S FAREWELL TOUR IN SEATTLE WILL BE NICE BUT IN THE END KIND OF SADI've written about the strange cross road that the Mariners have hit. They would be trading veterans all over creation and possibly laying down the foundation for the next great Mariners team... if only this team did what it was supposed to do and suck!
But save for a few homers, Griffey is a shell of his former self. And it's always kind of sad to say goodbye.
19. THE FLORIDA MARLINS WILL WIN 90 GAMES
A few weeks into the season, it looked like the Marlins would win 100 games!
If only they could play the Nationals every day.
Either way, they have their nose above .500 and a solid second half could bring them over the top. No team is as streaky as Florida!
20. WASHINGTON NATIONALS WILL LOSE 110 GAMES AND PASS ON STEPHEN STRASBERG IN THE DRAFT
110 losses looks like a given at this point.
As for Strasberg, they did pick him, but if they don't sign him it could be a disaster.
A few weeks into the season, it looked like the Marlins would win 100 games!
If only they could play the Nationals every day.
Either way, they have their nose above .500 and a solid second half could bring them over the top. No team is as streaky as Florida!
20. WASHINGTON NATIONALS WILL LOSE 110 GAMES AND PASS ON STEPHEN STRASBERG IN THE DRAFT110 losses looks like a given at this point.
As for Strasberg, they did pick him, but if they don't sign him it could be a disaster.
Well they took their time bringing him up, for obvious financial reasons.
Weiters isn't on anyone's shortlist of Rookie of the Year candidates, but he hasn't embarrassed himself either.
22. TRAVIS HAFNER WILL BE TRADED, PAVING THE WAY FOR MATT LaPORTA'S ROOKIE OF THE YEAR SEASON
Man I drank the Kool Aid with Matt LaPorta, who didn't exactly tear up big league pitching this spring before returning to Columbus.
But his .312 average and .929 OPS in AAA show he might be ready to break out in the second half... and Hafner, whose numbers aren't horrible, needs to go.
23. THE PADRES WILL DEAL JAKE PEAVY TO THE CARDINALS AND INCLUDE DAVID ECKSTEIN IN THE TRADEOhhh man how happy are the White Sox that their trade was rejected!
And how mad are the Padres that they didn't pull the trigger on a deal when they can?
The Padres will never get their peak value for Peavy... and the suffering in San Diego continues.
24 . PADRES MANAGER BUD BLACK WILL BE FIRED BEFORE JUNE.Bud Black is still the manager for the Padres.
Isn't that strange?
Anyone have any idea why?
25. THE PIRATES WILL MAKE A RUN AT .500
Maybe this was wishful thinking...
The Pirates should just declare themselves a farm team at this point.
It would be funny if it wasn't so sad to see one of the great proud franchises in baseball reduced to sending away players when they get good, getting little in return and continue their irrelevance streak to 17 years.
26. JOSH HAMILTON IS FOR REALHe has the second half of the season to show that he is... and to retroactively earn that spot on the All Star team.
27. THE RAYS WILL STUMBLE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE YEAR, RELAX AND MAKE A RUN AT A PLAYOFF SPOTHey! A prediction that so far looks pretty good.
The Rays are too talented a squad to be the team that began the season so poorly.
Plus they are a lot younger than the Yankees. If they can pick up a pitcher, they'd be in great shape.
Wonder if the Tigers will be willing to trade back Edwin Jackson?
28. DAVID PRICE WILL JOIN THE RAYS FOR GOOD IN MID MAYMid May was an easy prediction. But he's been off and on with his effectiveness. He's have to win 9 games in the second half to match my prediction of 12 wins.
He's not showing a lot of control. Where was that lack of control in the 8th and 9th inning of last years ALCS?
29. THE CINCINNATI REDS WILL BE THE MOST EXCITING TEAM TO WATCH ALL YEARThey haven't been boring, that's for sure.
There are some days they look like they are about to break out.
Then there are some days they look like a sub .500 team going nowhere.
They are sub .500 and 5 1/2 games out now... they'll need a pretty exciting second half to make this an accurate prediction.
30. THE PHILLIES WILL WIN THEIR THIRD STRAIGHT DIVISION TITLEJust a few weeks ago, it looked like there might be a 4 way tie in the NL East.
But with a rotten pitching staff, Brad Lidge imploding and Jimmy Rollins having a HORRIBLE first half, the Phillies find themselves with a 5 game lead and visions of Roy Halladay dancing in their heads.
Pretty safe bet.
31. DESPITE CHRIS IANNETTA'S BREAK OUT YEAR, THE ROCKIES WILL BE OUT OF IT BY MAYIt takes a really lousy crystal ball to get TWO things wrong in one prediction!
Iannetta has been anything but a breakout star, but the Rockies have been one of most pleasant surprises of the year.
After purging Clint Hurdle, Jim Tracy has piloted the team to a 30-13 mark and brought them to within 1 1/2 games of San Francisco.
32. THE ROYALS WILL HAVE A WINNING SEASON, BUT FINISH A DISTANT THIRD PLACEIt's a marathon, not a sprint.
That's a cliche I know, but some cliches are there for a reason. The Royals started out great led by Grienke.
Now they are 37-51, sinking like a rock and thinking about rebuilding... again.
33. THE GHOSTS OF 2006 PERSIST IN DETROITThe success of the Tigers completely baffles me... to the point that I don't even want the Red Sox to see them in October.
I thought they were a mess, but here we are!
The Tigers have a 3 1/2 game lead over the White Sox and look like they may have the horses (and the arms) to pull this off.
Who knew?
34. GARY SHEFFIELD WILL HIT .198, 3 HOMERS AND BE CUT AGAIN IN JUNEIt's shocking to see Sheffield had anything left in the tank. I kind of thought the Tigers cutting him was a sign that it was all over.
But true to form, Sheffield plays well with a chip on his shoulder.
The Mets are going nowhere in a hurry, maybe a team in need of a DH should take a flier on him.
Why not? The Tigers are paying for him anyway!
35. JUSTIN MORNEAU WILL LEAD THE TWINS TO AN EASY DIVISION TITLEMorneau held up his end of the bargain! He's as good an MVP candidate as anyone along with his teammate Joe Mauer.
The Twins are 4 back of Detroit.
The Division might not be so easily won, but it is not out of reach!
36. THE BEST TEAM IN CHICAGO WON'T BE IN WRIGLEYThis looked like a daring prediction when I made it, but I felt the White Sox were getting short changed in the "respect for defending Division Champion" department.
The White Sox are 2 games over .500.
The Cubs are 1 game over .500.
So far, so good.
37. MILTON BRADLEY IS A TERRIBLE FIT IN CHICAGO
What a shock!
Lou Piniella and Milton Bradley weren't a good fit!
Do GMs not read the newspaper?
What a shock!
Lou Piniella and Milton Bradley weren't a good fit!
Do GMs not read the newspaper?
38. SORRY CUBS FANS
I am probably the only person who didn't think the Cubs were October bound this year.
They aren't out of the race. In fact they are only 3 games out... but a few things need to break their way, and so far NOTHING has this year.
39. PEDRO MARTINEZ RETURNS TO THE DODGERSThe Dodgers were still the only place where it made sense for Pedro to go.
And yet he is a Philadelphia Phillie.
What do I know?
40. COMEBACK PLAYER OF THE YEAR? ERIC CHAVEZ OF OAKLAND
This picture of Eric Chavez is not from this year.
I couldn't find a picture of Eric Chavez playing this year.
He's only played in 8 games so far this year.
He has a .100 average.
He's not winning that award this year.
So there you have it... some right, some jaw droppingly wrong.
But a whole second half of a season to go.
Maybe Eric Chavez can turn it around!
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