Sully Baseball's Fearless Predictions for 2011

I made my Division and World Series picks...
And now for a prediction for each team.


ANGELS – The most underrated team going into the season. Vernon Wells will rebound, the starting rotation will be the best in the American League. Scott Kazmir is as good as gone, but Matt Palmer steps in to win 13 games in the #4 spot. The Angels will win the Division.




ASTROS - The Astros will surprise a lot of experts by hovering around .500 all season. Wandy Rodriguez will win 14 games, J. A. Happ will win 13 and Jordan Lyles will be in the rotation for the second half of the season and play well. They won't compete in 2011 but will become a trendy pick for 2012.



ATHLETICS – The A’s will contend throughout the season, but the real news will be in where they play. As MLB wrings their hands trying to figure out what to do with the stadium, San Jose will approve financing for a new ballpark, forcing the issue. The A’s will work out a deal similar to the Nationals deal with the Orioles and the end of the 2011 will bring around the announcement that the A’s are heading to the South Bay.



BLUE JAYS – Jose Bautista’s home run total returns to Earth (22 tops.) And he becomes a strange test case of the post steroids era. He has hit 47% of his career homers last year, getting 54 after peaking at 16. That number will stick out, but unless proven otherwise, it has to be looked at as a fluke (unlike Brady Anderson.)



BRAVES – The Braves are good, but Tim Hudson and Derek Lowe come back down to Earth cutting their playoff run just short. Meanwhile Jayson Heyward continues to hit the ball well but Freddie Freeman isn’t ready yet.



BREWERS - The Zack Grienke trade becomes the sequel to the Mariners acquiring Cliff Lee. It looked great in December and it will fall apart grotesquely in practice. The basketball game heard 'round the world will keep the Brewers out of contention. They finish barely above .500. Meanwhile Prince Fielder is dealt to Colorado.



CARDINALS – Colby Rasmus never gets out of the doghouse and is dealt. Rasmus seems to think he has already lined up his MVP cred when he called out Hall of Fame manager Tony LaRussa last year. I can’t imagine life is getting any easier in Cardinal land, especially with the Pujols contract and the Wainwright injury looming over the team. Rasmus will be dealt at the deadline for pitching help and an eye on 2012.


CUBS – Mike Quade is as good as gone. The Cubs are in transition mode and Quade’s job seems to be keep the seat warm. Once some of the bad contracts are shed and some sort of direction if found, Quade will be axed. If he is the manager at the July 31st trade deadline, I will be stunned. LaRussa is courted to be the new manager for 2012 and hopefully brings Pujols with him.



DIAMONDBACKS - Justin Upton and Kirk Gibson have a tense confrontation. The result? He goes on a tear the second half of the season and becomes a trendy pick for 2012 NL MVP. The Diamondbacks finish dead last but there is hope for the future.




DODGERS – Don Mattingly will be a rotten fit for the Dodgers. It is not his fault that the Dodgers don’t have the personnel, but a team in flux like this needs a veteran manager, not someone who will have growing pains. Oddly, this is a team Grady Little should manage, but he is no doubt persona non grata in Dodgertown.



GIANTS – Brandon Belt will be the Giants first baseman by June. With a slimmed down and motivated Pablo Sandoval and a focused Buster Posey, the Giants will have three homegrown stars in their lineup to go with their homegrown rotation and bullpen ace. The Giants pull away and win the Division with a week to spare.


INDIANS – In a lost season in Cleveland, one star will regain his luster. Grady Sizemore will be the Comeback Player of the Year, hitting .300 for the first time in his career, getting his OPS near .900 and stealing 30 bags.



MARINERS – Eric Wedge can’t turn the ship around in his only year in Seattle. Felix Hernandez and Ichiro Suzuki continue to be terrific but Chone Figgins will be shopped in a salary dump, Milton Bradley cut, Jack Cust benched and Jack Wilson will somehow get 400 at bats. Seattle fires Eric Wedge at the end of the year.



MARLINS – The final year in Joe Robbie Stadium (or whatever it is called now) will be amazing and with lots of empty orange seats. Mike Stanton becomes one of the truly exciting players in the game. Hanley Ramirez will have the best year of his career. Josh Johnson will pitch like an ace and the Fish will make the playoffs for their third time in their existence. Edwin Rodriguez keeps his job into the new ballpark.



METS – The July 31st trade deadline will be “Meet the Mets!” time for contenders. With the team facing an economic crisis and virtually no chance to contend, any healthy expensive body is being dealt. Carlos Beltran is good as gone if he can play. Jason Bay will be shipped off too. Maybe even Jose Reyes. David Wright too? It is possible.



NATIONALS - As all attention is placed on Hagerstown and the development of Bryce Harper, the big league club stumbles out of the gate and never recovers. To shake things up Jim Riggleman is let go right after Jim Leyland is fired from the Tigers. But when Leyland turns down the Washington job, interim manager John McLaren finishes the season as Washington looks to court Tony LaRussa in the off season.



ORIOLES – The Birds take a step forward, but Mark Reynolds swings and misses. Now of course Reynolds is going to strike out a lot. He already officially has 6 strikeouts and the season hasn’t started yet. But he will be exposed even more than he was before in Arizona and it just won’t work out in Baltimore. The team itself will start to make strides toward respectability, but Buck Showalter is going to get fed up at how many runners are left in scoring position after a Reynolds at bat.


PADRES - The Padres start the season off well but by June, reality sits in. Heath Bell is shopped around. The Phillies and Angels are interested and he heads north to Anaheim. Cameron Maybin flops and the middle infield of Orlando Hudson and Jason Bartlett are dealt at the trade deadline.



PHILLIES – Forget Jose Contreras, Ryan Madson or Kyle Kendrick as Brad Lidge's replacement. The Phillies will make a deal for a closer. Detroit's Jose Valverde will be available when the Tigers fall apart and he will be logging saves in Philadelphia by July. The Phillies will go on to win the World Series.



PIRATES - There will be lots of talk about how the Pirates are trying to turn the corner with Pedro Alvarez and Andrew McCutchen as the corner stones. But the team can't get out of its own way and Paul Maholm becomes trade bait. Jameson Taillon is on the big league club for good in July.



RANGERS – The good fortune that befell the AL Champion Rangers in 2010 goes away for the defense. They will hit well but will miss Vlad Guerrero more than they expected. The Michael Young controversy sorts itself out as an injury to Ian Kinsler puts Young at second base.



RAYS – Jeremy Hellickson and Reid Brignac will make everyone forget about Matt Garza and Jason Bartlett. Hellickson will win 15 games and the Rookie of the Year while Brignac will bring a steady glove up the middle. Meanwhile Manny Ramirez will get a few big hits, but Johnny Damon will contribute next to nothing.


REDS - Aroldis Chapman takes over the bullpen closer role as the Reds role and never look back. Jay Bruce challenges Joey Votto for MVP of the team and Edinson Volquez wins 18 games. The Reds win the Division by 8 games.



RED SOX – The Red Sox will have a solid year, but Josh Beckett will be the 800 pound gorilla of the season. He won’t get it on track and will resemble Jack Morris in 1993. That year Cito Gaston dutifully put him on the mound every 5 days out of respect until an injury mercifully pushed him off the playoff roster. In 2011, the Red Sox will look for any excuse to keep him off the roster 15 days at a time. The Red Sox make the playoffs but fall short in the ALCS.


ROCKIES - Todd Helton will finally run out of gas. And the Rockies will play half heartedly through June. At the trade deadline, hoping to give the team and the lineup a jolt, they part with a prospect and some other farm hands to bring in Prince Fielder. It pays dividends with some big homers in the thin air but he doesn't fit in with the straight laced Rockies clubhouse and is perceived as a mercenary by Colorado fans who prefer Helton. He bolts via free agency.


ROYALS – Alex Gordon will run out of chances but the Royals will surprise everyone by posting a winning season. Billy Butler will be dealt to a contender but never mind that Eric Hosmer and Mike Moustakas will be in Kansas City by June and give the team a major spark. They will finish the season 84-78.



TIGERS – The Jim Leyland era, which began so wonderfully with the 2006 Tigers, crashes and burns in the first half of the season. Miguel Cabrera and Justin Verlander will both be solid, but the team will stumble out of the gate and never recover. Leyland will be fired in June and a veteran manage is brought in to pick up the pieces. (Perhaps Ken Macha.)


TWINS – They will fight tooth and nail with the White Sox for the Division with Kansas City breathing down their necks. Delmon Young’s All Star season last year will prove to be a fluke and Justin Morneau just can’t stay healthy. And the good fortune of Carl Pavano will fall off the table and he will be removed from the rotation by July. As the Twins fall short, there will be whispering about replacing Ron Gardenhire.


WHITE SOX – The most fun team to follow this year will be on the South Side of Chicago. I didn’t say the best. I said the most fun. Guillen and Williams will be at each others throat and the Twitters updates will fly. But so will the balls off the bats of Dunn and Konerko. And Jake Peavy will return to make 20 starts, almost all of them in the second half and help pitch the White Sox back into the playoffs.


YANKEES – The “reclamation project” plan for the #5 starter will go about as well as the Red Sox taking a chance with John Smoltz and Brad Penny in 2009. In other words, Bartolo Colon, Freddy Garcia, Mark Prior, Kevin Millwood and any other washed up pitcher will flop. Look for kids like Dellin Betances and Andrew Brackman getting starts after the All Star break.



So let's take a look at these at the end of the year and see what I got right and what looks just damn foolish!

Can the Bay Area reverse October 2, 2004?

There is a potential power shift in the western divisions that could be heading north... and this week could be a big week in the Bay Area baseball wise.

In the early 2000s, the Northern California teams were on a roll. The A's made the postseason in 2000, 2001, 2002 and 2003.

The Giants, who were division winners in 1997 and 1998, moved into their new ballpark and made the post season in 2000, 2002 and 2003 and narrowly missed in 2001.

Of course the only California team to win the World Series in that period was a southern California club, the Angels, who stunned my dad's Giants, but I digress.

And then, on Saturday October 2, 2004 it all came crashing down.

The Giants needed to win their last two games against the Dodgers to force a play in game for the Western Title. They took a 3-0 lead into the 9th knowing that a win would mean all they would have to do is win again on Sunday and there would be a winner take all Dodgers/Giants match up. Then the 9th inning became a bone crusher for Giants fans.

Dustin Hermansen could only get one out as he walked three and let up a single. Then shortstop Cody Ransom booted a grounder and Jayson Werth singled to tie the game. And finally Steve Finley hit a walk off, division clinching, Giants eliminating grand slam.

The Giants haven't made the post season since.

The A's went into the last weekend tied with the Angels and were hosting Anaheim (they played in Anaheim back then) for a three game set. They had Mulder, Zito and Hudson rested and ready to go and if they won two of the games, they would be the Division Champs.

Mulder got blown out of the first game but Zito pitched well on October 2nd as the A's took the lead into the 8th. If the A's could hold on, the last game on Sunday would be a winner takes the division de facto playoff game.

But the A's bullpen imploded as Darrin Erstad tied the game in the 8th with a double and Garret Anderson hit a 2 out RBI single to give the Angels the lead that they wouldn't give up.

Since then, the Western Divisions have been controlled by Southern California teams.

The Giants haven't made the playoffs since the Finley slam and the A's have only made it back once in 2006.

The Angels won the Division in 2004, 2005, 2007, 2008 and 2009.
The Dodgers made the playoffs in 2004, 2006, 2008 and 2009.
The Padres won the division in 2005 and 2006, losing a play in game in 2007.

But now things are looking up in the north (and I am not just talking about my San Jose Sharks!)

The Giants could have the best starting rotation since Bobby Cox's Braves in the mid 1990s.

With a little help in the lineup and rotation, they could steal the division.

And this week they are playing the Padres three times... a team they trail by 1/2 a game. If they take two of three, the Giants will be in First Place by themselves.


And fresh off of Dallas Braden's perfect game, the A's find themselves in a big series in Arlington where they trail the Rangers by a single game.

If they take 2 of 3, they'll be tied for first. If they sweep, they'll be in first place all alone (of course the third game of this series won't be televised in Oakland... but that's another story.)

I know it is still relatively early in the year, but usually Memorial Day is when you start to see what teams are for real and which teams just had a decent April. And with the Padres overachieving and potentially ready for a collapse and the Dodgers a mess, the West is winnable for the Giants.

And you know the heat will wear down the Rangers pitchers, the Angels can't get out of their own way and the Mariners clubhouse is more tense than the island on Lost.

The Giants and the A's can do this. They can put October 2, 2004 WAY in their rear view mirror.

And the map to division titles could lead north again.

Which way should the A's go?

Perhaps it is appropriate that one of the pictures of proposed sites for the A's new ballpark features arrows going in all sorts of directions.

But it looks like Mayor Ron Dellums and company are going to try and keep the A's in town and finally unveiled some places to stick a baseball only ballpark.

Maybe they should have had a plan when the Raiders came back to town 14 years ago. Let's face it, the Oakland Coliseum wasn't a great place to see a ballgame BEFORE Al Davis returned to town, but since then it has reached "Stade Olympique in Montreal" levels of "They can't POSSIBLY play a big league game there!

So now the stadium is half empty during playoff games (I went to a playoff game in 2003 where there were 18,000 tickets available AFTER first pitch... my parents went to a deciding Game 5 in Oakland where they bought tickets at the ticket window DAY OF GAME!)

And it is not filled for Raider games ever. It is as if they found the way to perfectly foul it up for BOTH football and baseball.

The sad thing is there was a lot of money flowing through California in the 1990s... might have been the right time to build a ballpark!

Their neighbors across the Bay were in a rancid stadium (the Stick, like the Boston Garden, was more romantic in memory than it was in reality.) And now they have arguably the best new stadium in baseball.

And the A's are stuck...
And California is handing out I.O.U.s and Ah-Nold is more likely to get a budget for Last Action Hero 2 approved before getting a working budget for the state.

Not the best time to be spending dough on a new ballpark.

Maybe if the A's had built a new ballpark in the 1990s there would have been enough dough to keep the early 2000s teams together.

But now the city is scrambling to find some space along the Bay to stick a park and maybe put a few people to work.

And as I wrote before... where the hell are the A's going?

Frankly I was hoping the A's would move to San Jose. There would be nice sports symmetry there. Each Bay Area city would have 2 teams.

San Francisco would have the Giants and the 49ers.
Oakland would have the Raiders and the Warriors. (And the Warriors should change their name to the Oakland Warriors... Golden State sounds like a Cal State school scrambling for cash.)
San Jose would have the Sharks and the A's.

I hope they find a new place soon... the A's are a proud franchise and they deserve better than being the OTHER team ruined by Al Davis!