More Cubs bad luck... Roy Hobbs

I watched The Natural again this weekend. (why? Because I can!)

And something hit me while I watched the brilliant first act of the movie. When young Roy was off on the train, struck out The Whammer on three pitches and gets shot by Barbara Hershey... he was traveling to his big league try out.

And what team was giving the young Natural a shot?

Not the Knights.

THE CUBS!

Roy Hobbs could have been the best left handed pitcher in Wrigley!
And he could have had such power that he could literally hit the cover off the ball in a Cubs uniform.

And oh yeah, if he homered in pre-1988 Wrigley Field, he wouldn't have to worry about the exploding lights.

But did Cub fans in The Natural's universe get to experience that?
NO!

He gets shot and who reaps the rewards of his talents? THE NEW YORK KNIGHTS!

It was Cubs scout Sam Simpson who discovered him. And what did the Cubs get from it?
A broken clock!

I am telling you, the Cubs can't catch a break even in fiction!

Cubs fans... this can't be good

Granted it isn't a black cat... but still cats on the field are bad omens.

How Could I Not Pick The Cubs?

It seems that almost everyone and their bear is picking the Cubs to win the National League pennant besides your pal Sully.

In my Division Winner post, I picked the Reds to win the NL Central and the Cardinals to be the Wild Card.

That means I have the Cubbies at third place in their division.

And needless to say I've received some interesting e mails and posts.

Let me address 10 things about my pick of the Reds.

1. I DON'T SMOKE POT

Never have. Never has interested me. I don't like hanging around people who are stoned.

I also don't drink.

I made my picks 100% sober and with a lot of thought.

That should make my picks scarier for some of you.

2. I DON'T BUY THE CUBS PITCHING STAFF

Am I just supposed to accept Ted Lilly as a front line starter for a pennant winning team?

Really?

Carlos Zambrano has shoulder issues. Rich Harden is less reliable health wise than Amy Winehouse. Ryan Dempster has one more ace like season than me. Sean Marshall is untested.

In the bullpen Carlos Marmol is talented but not the closer. Their closer is Kevin Gregg who basically torpedoed the Marlin's post season hopes in 2008.

This is a pitching staff for a prohibitive favorite? REALLY?

3. CUBS LINE UP ISN'T MAKING ME JUMPING UP AND DOWN

Yes, it's darn good. But not so great that it makes me forget that pitching staff. I am not buying Milton Bradley (a DH) in right field and center field is a question mark.

They could have 2/3 of their outfield be a mess. Plus they'll miss Mark DeRosa.

4. THE PRESSURE IN WRIGLEYVILLE WILL BE UNBEARABLE

The days of Cubs fans happy to see their team, win or lose, provided they have a beer or two, are over.

Cubs fans are getting a little bitter.

Cubs fans have run out of patience.

And after last year's collapse, the pressure on the team will be crazy.

And in order to survive those expectations, you need a terrific pitching staff (a la the 2004 Red Sox.) And I mentioned before... I don't think the Cubs have that.

5. THE "I CAN'T BELIEVE THESE GUYS ARE PITCHING IN THE WORLD SERIES" FACTOR

What do Scott Kazmir, James Shields, Andy Sonnanstine, Jeff Francis, Ubaldo Jimenez, Josh Fogg, Aaron Cook, Anthony Reyes, Justin Verlander, Nate Robertson and Jeremy Bonderman all have in common?

Each one started a World Series game in the last three years and NONE of them were on anyone's post season radar when the season began.

Heck, the Rockies pitchers weren't on anyone's radar in September of 2007.

But there is always a team filled with young hungry pitchers that you've never heard of that out plays and out pitches the big boys.

So I looked around and tried to find a team like that...

6. THE REDS HAVE TALENT IN A PRESSURE FREE ENVIRONMENT

Between Cueto, Volquez, Harang, Arroyo, Homer Bailey and Micah Owings, the Reds have a bunch of talented pitchers with no pennant expectations.

Kind of like those Tampa Bay, Colorado and Detroit pitchers I listed above...

Plus a closer like Cordero and a lot of veteran help in the pen (Rhodes, Wathers) and some other talent like Jared Burton and Bill Bray... and they might not blow a lot of leads.

All they need are 3 or 4 of those guys to pitch to their talent under the radar and the Reds could win a bunch of series 2 out of 3.

7. WHILE THE PRESSURE BUILDS IN CHICAGO, THEY'LL BE HAVING FUN IN CINCINNATI

They aren't playing for a fan base demanding they win before their beloved Noni dies.

They are playing for great baseball fans who just want to see a winner at this point.

And like Detroit in 2006, they are a fan base that is drooling to have fun at the ball park again. They should get their wish.

8. BE CAREFUL OF THOSE PROHIBITIVE PICKS

Remember last year's predictions for the AL Central?

The only questions going into 2008 were "Will the Indians put it all together and win the pennant?" or "Will the revamped Tigers be too strong?"

The Indians needed a terrific September to reach .500. The Tigers finished 14 games under .500.

The White Sox looked like a team that foolishly hung on to their veterans and the Twins were decimated by the Johan Santana deal and the Torii Hunter defection.

Naturally those were the two teams that met in a one game playoff.

Not a lot of people picked the Rays to finish .500, let alone 3 wins from a World Series title. The Mariners were a trendy pick to win... not lose 101 games.

Each year there are "No Brainer" picks that tank.

Each year there are "No Chance" teams that win.

9. THE TEAMS PLAYING NOW AREN'T THE TEAMS THAT WILL BE PLAYING IN OCTOBER

Preseason picks don't take into account potential trades and mid season call ups.

And this season should have a few teams (like the Tigers and the Nationals) doing a fire sale in May if they don't get off to a good start.

And as Manny showed last year, a mid season deal could be just the tonic for TWO teams!

10. MOST IMPORTANT THING TO REMEMBER... MY PICKS USUALLY SUCK

But I figured I might as well stick my neck out!

And if they stink, I'll admit it.

I did in 2007.

I did in 2008.

My picking the Reds should be music to Cubs fans ears!

And somehow it just gets worse for Cubs fans

The Cubs haven't been to the World Series since 1945.
They are now entering their second century without a World Series title.

Meanwhile 4 expansion teams have been created since the start of the 1993 season.
The Marlins have won two World Series.
The Diamondbacks won the 2001 World Series.
The Rockies won the 2007 pennant.
And now the Rays have won the 2008 pennant and are being picked to win the World Series... this World Series that was the Cubs to lose!

And this doesn't even include the pennant winning expansion teams of the 1960s and 1970s (Astros, Mets, Angels, Padres, Brewers, Blue Jays and Royals).

As I wrote for Dennis Miller... "At this point even Ike Turner would say to Cubs fans 'You've got to get out of this relationship... it's no good for you!'"

Leave Cub fans alone for a little bit

Seriously, give them some space.

If you know a big time Cubs fan, like I know my boss Frank or my good pal Rob Paravonian, don't call them.

Obviously don't taunt them... but don't call them to say "I'm sorry" or "hang in there."

Don't say "you'll get them next time" or "relax, you are an award winning TV producer with a strong marriage and three loving kids."

This one hurts... and they all knew it too.
Last year's sweep by Arizona was the dry run for this year's charge for at least the pennant.

This team could hit, pitch, had swagger and was the team to beat.

And boy were they beat.

Give the Cub fans a break.
They are like a guy who found out his wife slept with his best friend...
You don't say "Hey man, it sucks that your wife did that."
Let HIM bring it up in conversation.

The entire Cubs fan base has that "how could I have been so wrong about this?!" malaise. Let them get through it.

They are like Harvey Keitel at the end of Reservoir Dogs when he realizes he put everything including his own life to defend Tim Roth only to find out he was wrong.

Give the Cub fans some space.
Assume they won't be watching any more playoff baseball this year.

And let them shoot Tim Roth in the head.

My predictions are usually terrible but...

I remember something I wrote during my "predictions" post back in March.

I said that the Dodgers were going to beat the Cubs adding "And yes, I am predicting yet another heartbreak for the Cubs."

Then again, I also predicted them to get out of the Division Series and the heart break would be in the NLCS.

What happened tonight was positively grotesque.
To go from being the consensus pick to win the NL Pennant (breaking a 63 year drought there) and possibly winning their first title in a century to being the first eliminated is a fate that even Eli Roth would find too cruel to include in Hostel 3.

It could actually get worse for Cubs fans.

With the Brewers still alive with tonight's win, tomorrow's game is probably going to decide who the Dodgers will face.

Obviously if Philly wins, they move on.
But if Milwaukee wins at home, game 5 will have Sabathia on the mound.
Do you REALLY think he is going to stink twice?

Imagine the Cubs and their dream season dead and the Brewers with their panicking and terrible September still alive.

I warned of that possibility in July...
and frankly I feel guilty about that.

You can exhale a little bit, Cubs fans

Nothing like a no hitter in a neutral site to release some tension.

I think Zambrano is fine.
He had a decent hit to innings pitched ratio.

Some neutral site! The Cubs were in their road jerseys and the place was rocking like it was Waveland Avenue.

So calm down Cub fans...
Remember it's better to lose a few in September instead of October.

How can things get worse for Cubs fans?

I know for some people the script has been written out already:

On the 100th anniversary of the Cubs 1908 World Series title, the new look Cubs win their second straight NL Central title, their first pennant since WWII and finally their long awaited series.

The Red Sox had won 2, the White Sox 1... now it is the Cubs turn to wipe away bad memories and have their parade.

This decade of good will would let long suffering Cub fans visit their grandparents graves and give the baseball world a World Series call from Ron Santo that would probably sound like a drunken Chewbacca.

And it looks more and more like this will be the year.

They've got the bats and now with Harden and Zambrano they have the arms.

Fukudome has been as advertised and Soriano is back.

They currently have the best record in the National League... a league that has no powerhouse and where 90 wins will probably give a team home field until the World Series.

Which team in the NL is going to knock them out? The Psychitzophrenic Mets? The barely over .500 NL West Champs?

And destiny will be on their side. Lou Pinella has been here before... his Reds seemed overmatched by the 1990 A's and the Reds swept them for the World Series and never ending discussions on Dibble and Kennedy's XM Show.

The Cubs will be World Champions... and the Junior Senator from Illinois will become President... rides on Navy Pier will be for free and the winter will be mild.

It could happen.

Or something else could happen.

I remember in 1986, I felt the Red Sox were charmed... especially after coming back down to their last strike against the Angels and winning the first two against the Mets. And then getting those 2 runs in the 10th of game 6.

It seemed perfect. The perfect team of veterans like Rice and Evans along with new comers like Boggs and Clemens.

I also felt the 1995 team had destiny on its side... before being swept away by the Indians.

And 2003... the team stormed back against the A's on my wedding night... and had that 5-2 lead in Yankee Stadium in the 8th of game 7.

Each time it felt like destiny.
Each time ended worse than Tony Montana falling into the fountain.

You do know it can happen, right?
There could be a new Garvey Homer... there could be a new black cat... a new botched double play... another ball through the first baseman's legs... another brutal decision to leave a pitcher in like in 1989 and 1998... or to take the ace out like in 2007.

(Notice I didn't include Bartman... he didn't let up 8 runs. Leave the guy alone.)

And if you don't win, just like the Cubs haven't won since Teddy Roosevelt was in office, then someone else will.

Since that fateful 8th inning of game 6 of the 2003 NLCS, Cubs fans have watched the Marlins celebrate on their field only to later match them in total World Championships (2).

They've seen their compadre in misery, the Red Sox, win 2.
They've seen their stepbrother on the South Side, the White Sox, win it and hold a parade.
They've seen their blood rival, the Cardinals win.

But there's another scenario that might throw salt into the wounds:
What if the Brewers won?
You know that team just to the North... that team that Cub fans turn into "Wrigley North" when they play?

Can you imagine continuing to search for a title into a second century while being surrounded by White Sox, Cardinals and even Brewers fans who have won since W was reelected?

Would that be too much?

Let me ask you... do the fans who Bleed Cubbie Blue really think this is their year?

Do the Goat Riders of the Apocalypse think a Cubs victory will bring peace or Armageddon?

Is The Ghost of Paul Noce prepared for more demons or bad spirits?

Will the Wrigleyville 23 folks lose it when Brewer fans have some ammunition?

Or will A Hundred Next Years be resigned to postponing the party for another century?

Let me know Cub fans... and while you are at it, support the brilliant comic and devoted Cub fan Rob Paravonian.
Rob P opened for George Carlin for the last year or so... and sadly the Cubs drought outlived Carlin in every way.

Let's hope Rob gets to see one... and avoid hearing Pachebel